2017 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

10·15

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 23°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TEN -2.5

Total

40

Model margin

-1.4est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTitans
  • +0.020EPA / play-0.069
  • 41.7%Success rate42.6%
  • +0.095EPA / dropback-0.057
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.086
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -2.97CPOE+0.43
  • 36.9%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 62.0%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.73
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–TEN
JAXQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:3443Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:49830Punt0–0
TENQ1 8:073-12Punt0–0
JAXQ1 5:52617Punt0–0
TENQ1 2:50782Touchdown0–6
JAXQ2 14:04858Field goal3–6
TENQ2 10:14421Punt3–6
JAXQ2 7:29838Punt3–6
TENQ2 3:3039Punt3–6
TENQ2 1:4935Field goal3–9
JAXQ2 1:2113Turnover3–9
TENQ2 1:0738Field goal3–12
TENQ3 15:0047Punt3–12
JAXQ3 13:3134Punt3–12
TENQ3 12:00723Field goal3–15
JAXQ3 7:42939Punt3–15
TENQ3 4:1455Punt3–15
JAXQ3 1:50621Turnover3–15
TENQ4 14:12615Opp touchdown10–15
TENQ4 10:4837Punt10–15
JAXQ4 9:19420Punt10–15
TENQ4 7:48423Punt10–15
JAXQ4 5:013-10Punt10–15
TENQ4 3:57837Punt10–15
JAXQ4 0:1810Turnover10–15
TENQ4 0:1000End of half10–15

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles15/3415802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette19693.60
Blake Bortles199.00
T.J. Yeldon451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Leonard Fournette45670
Allen Hurns35380
Keelan Cole48330
Marcedes Lewis23130
Dede Westbrook1990
James O'Shaughnessy0200
T.J. Yeldon12-20

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota12/2113410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcus Mariota10606.00
Derrick Henry28511.80
Taywan Taylor155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Henry12661
Delanie Walker35190
Eric Decker36180
Luke Stocker11120
Jonnu Smith33120
Rishard Matthews1270
Corey Davis0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.3%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.40