Closing spread
TEN -2.5
Total
40
Model margin
-1.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.020EPA / play-0.069
- 41.7%Success rate42.6%
- +0.095EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.7%
- -2.97CPOE+0.43
- 36.9%Third-down rate36.0%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.81Points / drive1.73
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 15/34 | 158 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 19 | 69 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 4 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 12/21 | 134 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 10 | 60 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 28 | 51 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 2 | 66 | 1 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.3%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.14
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.40