2017 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

27·24

Broncos

Denver

QB Paxton Lynch

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 17°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

DEN -3

Total

37.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.082EPA / play-0.119
  • 44.2%Success rate38.4%
  • +0.170EPA / dropback-0.110
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.134
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +4.58CPOE-2.16
  • 39.2%Third-down rate38.9%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
  • 2.21Points / drive1.24
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–24 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC
2022 · W17DEN @ KC24–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–DEN
KCQ1 15:00586Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 14:0332Punt7–0
KCQ1 12:3823Turnover7–0
DENQ1 12:001172Field goal7–3
KCQ1 5:223-4Punt7–3
DENQ1 2:38514Punt7–3
KCQ2 15:00843Punt7–3
DENQ2 10:381080Touchdown7–10
KCQ2 4:56873Touchdown14–10
DENQ2 1:07441Turnover14–10
KCQ2 0:2020Punt14–10
DENQ3 15:00514Punt14–10
KCQ3 12:441790Field goal17–10
DENQ3 3:582-6Opp touchdown24–10
DENQ3 3:0448Punt24–10
KCQ3 0:37525Punt24–10
DENQ4 12:491349Turnover24–16
KCQ4 7:0210Opp touchdown24–17
KCQ4 6:5232Punt24–17
DENQ4 5:16862Touchdown24–24
KCQ4 2:531162Field goal27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes22/3528401
Tyler Bray0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt13535.01
Akeem Hunt4256.30
Patrick Mahomes7101.40
Tyler Bray100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Albert Wilson10111470
Demetrius Harris34730
Demarcus Robinson410310
Jehu Chesson1380
Akeem Hunt1240
De'Anthony Thomas0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Paxton Lynch21/3125422

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson18613.40
Devontae Booker3217.00
De'Angelo Henderson Sr.5153.00
Paxton Lynch3134.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Taylor68650
Demaryius Thomas68571
Bennie Fowler46560
De'Angelo Henderson Sr.11291
Devontae Booker11250
Jeff Heuerman1290
Isaiah McKenzie1370
Virgil Green1160
C.J. Anderson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.8%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.00