Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.082EPA / play-0.119
- 44.2%Success rate38.4%
- +0.170EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.134
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.3%
- +4.58CPOE-2.16
- 39.2%Third-down rate38.9%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 2.21Points / drive1.24
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 22/35 | 284 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Bray | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 35 | 35.0 | 1 |
| Akeem Hunt | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Tyler Bray | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Wilson | 10 | 11 | 147 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 3 | 4 | 73 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 4 | 10 | 31 | 0 |
| Jehu Chesson | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paxton Lynch | 21/31 | 254 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 18 | 61 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| De'Angelo Henderson Sr. | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Paxton Lynch | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Taylor | 6 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 6 | 8 | 57 | 1 |
| Bennie Fowler | 4 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| De'Angelo Henderson Sr. | 1 | 1 | 29 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.49
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+3.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.00