2017 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

24·31

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

NO -6

Total

49

Model margin

+0.1est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.092EPA / play+0.004
  • 45.3%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.140EPA / dropback+0.090
  • +0.026EPA / rush-0.167
  • 12.4%Explosive rate6.5%
  • +4.74CPOE+3.38
  • 38.5%Third-down rate42.9%
  • 65.9%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 2.37Points / drive1.79
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–TB
TBQ1 15:001470Touchdown6–7
NOQ1 9:4200Touchdown7–7
TBQ1 9:29746Turnover7–7
NOQ1 6:00665Touchdown14–7
TBQ1 2:36617Punt14–7
NOQ2 14:14516Punt14–7
TBQ2 12:051275Touchdown14–13
NOQ2 5:50843Turnover on downs14–13
TBQ2 2:32312Turnover14–13
NOQ2 1:5031Punt14–13
TBQ2 0:56513End of half14–13
NOQ3 15:00716Punt14–13
TBQ3 11:28867Turnover14–13
NOQ3 8:02855Field goal17–13
TBQ3 2:44714Touchdown17–20
NOQ4 14:041392Touchdown24–20
TBQ4 7:07946Field goal24–23
NOQ4 4:31828Punt24–23
TBQ4 1:581195Touchdown24–31
NOQ4 0:0917End of half24–31

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees22/3024510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara9444.91
Mark Ingram13352.70
Wil Lutz144.00
Drew Brees122.00
Ted Ginn122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas68940
Alvin Kamara67840
Ted Ginn36330
Mark Ingram44190
Josh Hill1280
Garrett Griffin1140
Brandon Coleman0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston28/5136313

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber17714.21
Jameis Winston5326.41
Charles Sims166.00
Bobo Wilson242.00
Doug Martin3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.7121111
Adam Humphries7111020
Mike Evans513550
Cameron Brate35370
Jacquizz Rodgers22200
Peyton Barber24180
Alan Cross11110
Freddie Martino1190
Charles Sims0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.3%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.67
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.07