2017 · Week 17 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
NO -6
Total
49
Model margin
+0.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.092EPA / play+0.004
- 45.3%Success rate44.2%
- +0.140EPA / dropback+0.090
- +0.026EPA / rush-0.167
- 12.4%Explosive rate6.5%
- +4.74CPOE+3.38
- 38.5%Third-down rate42.9%
- 65.9%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 2.37Points / drive1.79
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 22/30 | 245 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 13 | 35 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Wil Lutz | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 6 | 8 | 94 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 7 | 84 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Garrett Griffin | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 28/51 | 363 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 17 | 71 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Jameis Winston | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Charles Sims | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Bobo Wilson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 7 | 12 | 111 | 1 |
| Adam Humphries | 7 | 11 | 102 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 5 | 13 | 55 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Alan Cross | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Freddie Martino | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.67
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.07