2018 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

38·28

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

StubHub Center · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

LAC -3.5

Total

48

Model margin

+1.4est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapChargers
  • +0.236EPA / play+0.126
  • 50.0%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.349EPA / dropback+0.211
  • +0.018EPA / rush+0.001
  • 12.1%Explosive rate12.5%
  • +4.64CPOE+3.54
  • 47.8%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 75.5%Red-zone TD rate70.7%
  • 3.03Points / drive2.31
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 32–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. LAC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6LAC @ KC6–22KC
2025 · W15LAC @ KC16–13CHARGERS
2025 · W1KC @ LAC21–27CHARGERS
2024 · W14LAC @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W4KC @ LAC17–10KC
2023 · W18KC @ LAC13–12KC
2023 · W7LAC @ KC17–31KC
2022 · W11KC @ LAC30–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–LAC
LACQ1 15:0039Opp touchdown7–0
LACQ1 13:03843Field goal7–3
KCQ1 9:20575Touchdown14–3
LACQ1 6:39424Punt14–3
KCQ1 5:0334Punt14–3
LACQ1 4:02539Field goal14–6
KCQ1 0:21430Punt14–6
LACQ2 13:581491Touchdown14–12
KCQ2 7:471047Field goal17–12
LACQ2 2:0046Punt17–12
KCQ2 0:51547End of half17–12
KCQ3 15:001169Touchdown24–12
LACQ3 9:25960Turnover24–12
KCQ3 4:16686Touchdown31–12
LACQ3 0:48991Touchdown31–20
KCQ4 12:0434Punt31–20
KCQ4 10:2232Touchdown38–20
LACQ4 9:421190Touchdown38–28
KCQ4 5:0130Punt38–28
LACQ4 3:05856Missed field goal38–28
KCQ4 1:063-2Punt38–28
LACQ4 0:36432End of half38–28

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes15/2725640

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt16493.10
Spencer Ware33210.70
Patrick Mahomes5214.20
Tyreek Hill242.00
Damien Williams100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill781692
Sammy Watkins35210
Chris Conley11150
Spencer Ware1180
Travis Kelce1660
De'Anthony Thomas1211
Kareem Hunt0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers34/5142431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon15644.30
Austin Ekeler5397.80
Travis Benjamin11919.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen8111081
Melvin Gordon9131020
Austin Ekeler55871
Mike Williams56810
Virgil Green22210
Antonio Gates23160
Tyrell Williams2581
Travis Benjamin1510

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

47.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.38