Closing spread
LAC -3.5
Total
48
Model margin
+1.4est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.236EPA / play+0.126
- 50.0%Success rate47.0%
- +0.349EPA / dropback+0.211
- +0.018EPA / rush+0.001
- 12.1%Explosive rate12.5%
- +4.64CPOE+3.54
- 47.8%Third-down rate39.7%
- 75.5%Red-zone TD rate70.7%
- 3.03Points / drive2.31
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. LAC are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 15/27 | 256 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 16 | 49 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 7 | 8 | 169 | 2 |
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 34/51 | 424 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 15 | 64 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 8 | 11 | 108 | 1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 9 | 13 | 102 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 5 | 87 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 5 | 6 | 81 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.36
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.38