Closing spread
ATL -5.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play+0.083
- 48.0%Success rate46.6%
- +0.086EPA / dropback+0.200
- +0.033EPA / rush-0.160
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.6%
- +2.75CPOE+4.21
- 42.1%Third-down rate45.1%
- 68.2%Red-zone TD rate72.2%
- 2.20Points / drive2.34
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ATL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 32/45 | 335 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 5 | 42 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 14 | 15 | 102 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 7 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 5 | 7 | 62 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 2 | 51 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 7 | 33 | 1 |
| Ian Thomas | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 23/28 | 272 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 16 | 107 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 5 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 4 | 5 | 64 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 5 | 5 | 59 | 1 |
| Marvin Hall | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.33
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.31