2018 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

24·31

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -5.5

Total

44

Model margin

+3.3est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.067EPA / play+0.083
  • 48.0%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.086EPA / dropback+0.200
  • +0.033EPA / rush-0.160
  • 10.7%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +2.75CPOE+4.21
  • 42.1%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 68.2%Red-zone TD rate72.2%
  • 2.20Points / drive2.34
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ATL
CARQ1 15:00639Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 11:361057Field goal3–3
CARQ1 5:413-5Punt3–3
ATLQ1 3:10619Punt3–3
CARQ1 0:101375Touchdown10–3
ATLQ2 8:421061Touchdown10–10
CARQ2 4:03512Punt10–10
ATLQ2 1:35785Touchdown10–17
CARQ2 0:2211End of half10–17
ATLQ3 15:00230Turnover10–17
CARQ3 14:1638Punt10–17
ATLQ3 12:49758Touchdown10–24
CARQ3 9:23738Punt10–24
ATLQ3 5:33748Punt10–24
CARQ3 1:441264Touchdown17–24
ATLQ4 11:23870Touchdown17–31
CARQ4 7:17453Turnover17–31
ATLQ4 6:1435Punt17–31
CARQ4 3:56596Touchdown24–31
ATLQ4 2:2039Punt24–31
CARQ4 1:48858End of half24–31

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton32/4533531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton5428.40
Christian McCaffrey8374.60
C.J. Anderson33110.30
DJ Moore177.00
Alex Armah144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey14151020
Devin Funchess79770
Jarius Wright57621
DJ Moore12511
Torrey Smith37331
Ian Thomas23100
C.J. Anderson0200

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan23/2827221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman161076.70
Ito Smith9465.10
Matt Ryan4184.52
Calvin Ridley133.00
Matt Schaub100.00
Mohamed Sanu1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones59640
Calvin Ridley45641
Austin Hooper55591
Marvin Hall11300
Mohamed Sanu22190
Tevin Coleman44180
Logan Paulsen11100
Ito Smith1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

3.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.33
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.31