2018 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

17·20

Titans

Tennessee

QB Blaine Gabbert

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

HOU -3.5

Total

41

Model margin

-1.5est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapTitans
  • +0.032EPA / play-0.029
  • 44.3%Success rate42.6%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback+0.023
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.094
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +4.58CPOE+1.50
  • 36.4%Third-down rate40.0%
  • 54.1%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.83
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. TEN are 19-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–TEN
HOUQ1 15:00513Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:05579Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 9:51838Missed field goal0–7
TENQ1 5:10956Touchdown0–14
HOUQ1 0:35853Turnover0–14
TENQ2 12:14619Punt0–14
HOUQ2 8:5439Punt0–14
TENQ2 7:36814Punt0–14
HOUQ2 3:28968Touchdown7–14
TENQ2 0:5839End of half7–14
TENQ3 15:0036Punt7–14
HOUQ3 13:251058Punt7–14
TENQ3 8:1735Punt7–14
HOUQ3 6:39836Field goal10–14
TENQ3 2:393-3Punt10–14
HOUQ3 0:08570Touchdown17–14
TENQ4 13:25736Field goal17–17
HOUQ4 9:43638Punt17–17
TENQ4 6:411362Field goal17–20
HOUQ4 1:00454End of half17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson22/3231021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller14684.90
Deshaun Watson5448.80
Alfred Blue7365.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Will Fuller891131
DeAndre Hopkins6111101
Bruce Ellington33450
Jordan Akins22210
Ryan Griffin11190
Lamar Miller2220

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert13/2011710
Derrick Henry1/1800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry18563.10
Dion Lewis14423.00
Blaine Gabbert221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis57550
Taywan Taylor34321
Luke Stocker22150
Tajae Sharpe12140
Rishard Matthews2480
Dion Lewis1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.1%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.81
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.46