Closing spread
HOU -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
-1.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.032EPA / play-0.029
- 44.3%Success rate42.6%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.023
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.094
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.3%
- +4.58CPOE+1.50
- 36.4%Third-down rate40.0%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 1.91Points / drive1.83
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. TEN are 19-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 22/32 | 310 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 14 | 68 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 5 | 44 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fuller | 8 | 9 | 113 | 1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 11 | 110 | 1 |
| Bruce Ellington | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 13/20 | 117 | 1 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 18 | 56 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 3 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Luke Stocker | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.1%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.81
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.46