Closing spread
MIN -2
Total
45
Model margin
+1.1est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play+0.054
- 43.2%Success rate45.9%
- -0.011EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.046
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.3%
- +2.40CPOE-1.39
- 36.2%Third-down rate36.5%
- 67.3%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.57Points / drive2.05
- 1.9%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 35/48 | 425 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 12 | 13 | 131 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 9 | 13 | 128 | 2 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 7 | 8 | 72 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 2 | 6 | 23 | 1 |
| David Morgan | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Stacy Coley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 30/42 | 281 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 16 | 59 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 8 | 95 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 8 | 12 | 64 | 1 |
| Geronimo Allison | 6 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.14