2018 · Week 2 · Division

Final / OT

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

29·29

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

MIN -2

Total

45

Model margin

+1.1est.

GB perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPackers
  • -0.075EPA / play+0.054
  • 43.2%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.011EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.203EPA / rush-0.046
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +2.40CPOE-1.39
  • 36.2%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 67.3%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 1.57Points / drive2.05
  • 1.9%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–GB
GBQ1 15:00723Punt0–0
MINQ1 10:40517Opp touchdown0–7
MINQ1 7:28857Touchdown7–7
GBQ1 3:041270Touchdown7–14
MINQ2 12:28522Punt7–14
GBQ2 9:5133Punt7–14
MINQ2 8:21524Punt7–14
GBQ2 6:3043Punt7–14
MINQ2 4:25734Missed field goal7–14
GBQ2 1:37528Field goal7–17
MINQ3 15:00513Punt7–17
GBQ3 11:361062Field goal7–20
MINQ3 6:3235Punt7–20
GBQ3 4:5431Punt7–20
MINQ3 3:19971Touchdown14–20
GBQ4 14:171157Field goal14–23
MINQ4 7:35275Touchdown21–23
GBQ4 7:181049Field goal21–26
MINQ4 2:1310Turnover21–26
GBQ4 2:0430Field goal21–29
MINQ4 1:45960Touchdown29–29
GBQ4 0:31341Missed field goal29–29
MINOT639Missed field goal29–29
GBOT514Punt29–29
MINOT763Missed field goal29–29

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins35/4842541

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook10383.80
Latavius Murray4194.80
Kirk Cousins252.50
Stefon Diggs111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen12131311
Stefon Diggs9131282
Kyle Rudolph78720
Dalvin Cook35520
Laquon Treadwell26231
David Morgan22190
Stacy Coley0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers30/4228110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams16593.70
Ty Montgomery5316.20
Aaron Rodgers382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham68950
Davante Adams812641
Geronimo Allison66640
Randall Cobb46300
Jamaal Williams34120
Ty Montgomery1290
Lance Kendricks1140
Marquez Valdes-Scantling1130
Marcedes Lewis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -24.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.14