Closing spread
DEN -5.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 19/35 | 222 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 14 | 107 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 4 | 96 | 0 |
| Jake Butt | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 11 | 18 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.46
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.36
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.