Closing spread
DEN -5.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutP.J. HallDTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableDeAndre WashingtonRBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableDwayne HarrisWRFoot· Limited
- QuestionableGabe JacksonGPectoral· Limited
- DNPAndrew DePaolaLSKnee
- DNPJustin EllisDTFoot
Broncos
Nothing filed.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 62 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 9:33 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:04 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 6:26 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 4:59 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 3:17 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 1:41 | 8 | 53 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| DEN | Q2 11:47 | 5 | 57 | Turnover | 6–0 |
| LV | Q2 9:32 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–0 |
| DEN | Q2 7:32 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LV | Q2 5:26 | 11 | 70 | Touchdown | 12–0 |
| DEN | Q2 0:35 | 4 | 34 | End of half | 12–0 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 70 | Touchdown | 12–7 |
| LV | Q3 9:06 | 7 | 85 | Touchdown | 19–7 |
| DEN | Q3 5:25 | 9 | 54 | Field goal | 19–10 |
| LV | Q3 2:43 | 10 | 42 | Turnover on downs | 19–10 |
| DEN | Q4 13:06 | 15 | 77 | Touchdown | 19–17 |
| LV | Q4 5:58 | 10 | 31 | Punt | 19–17 |
| DEN | Q4 1:58 | 10 | 72 | Field goal | 19–20 |
| LV | Q4 0:06 | 1 | 13 | End of half | 19–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 19/35 | 222 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 14 | 107 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 4 | 96 | 0 |
| Jake Butt | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 11 | 18 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.46
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.36
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.