2018 · Week 3 · Division

Final / OT

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

43·37

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -1.5

Total

54

Model margin

+1.4est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.156EPA / play+0.083
  • 49.9%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.284EPA / dropback+0.200
  • -0.011EPA / rush-0.160
  • 10.2%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +5.42CPOE+4.21
  • 46.3%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate72.2%
  • 2.94Points / drive2.34
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–ATL
NOQ1 15:00675Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 11:45415Punt7–0
NOQ1 10:2239Punt7–0
ATLQ1 8:511281Touchdown7–7
NOQ1 2:45731Punt7–7
ATLQ2 14:4848Punt7–7
NOQ2 11:58541Field goal10–7
ATLQ2 9:37418Punt10–7
NOQ2 7:52970Field goal13–7
ATLQ2 3:06275Touchdown13–14
NOQ2 2:12421Punt13–14
ATLQ2 1:3635Punt13–14
NOQ2 0:40231Field goal16–14
ATLQ2 0:0600End of half16–14
ATLQ3 15:00730Touchdown16–21
NOQ3 12:00410Punt16–21
ATLQ3 10:0047Punt16–21
NOQ3 8:36421Touchdown23–21
ATLQ3 6:071487Touchdown23–29
NOQ4 14:11865Touchdown30–29
ATLQ4 9:59664Touchdown30–37
NOQ4 6:581181Touchdown37–37
ATLQ4 1:15518Punt37–37
NOQ4 0:1600End of half37–37
NOOT1580Touchdown43–37

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees39/4939630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara16664.10
Taysom Hill33913.00
Ted Ginn12020.00
Mike Gillislee3103.30
Drew Brees372.32
Jonathan Williams111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas10101290
Alvin Kamara15201240
Benjamin Watson56710
Austin Carr12250
Josh Hill11170
Ted Ginn36121
Cameron Meredith11111
Jonathan Williams1110

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan26/3537450

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman15332.20
Matt Ryan4123.00
Calvin Ridley199.00
Ito Smith2-6-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley781463
Julio Jones56960
Ito Smith34410
Mohamed Sanu47361
Austin Hooper34230
Tevin Coleman23141
Logan Paulsen11110
Marvin Hall1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

47.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.43