Closing spread
ATL -1.5
Total
54
Model margin
+1.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play+0.083
- 49.9%Success rate46.6%
- +0.284EPA / dropback+0.200
- -0.011EPA / rush-0.160
- 10.2%Explosive rate9.6%
- +5.42CPOE+4.21
- 46.3%Third-down rate45.1%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate72.2%
- 2.94Points / drive2.34
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. ATL are 24-30 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 39/49 | 396 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 16 | 66 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 39 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 2 |
| Jonathan Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 10 | 10 | 129 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 15 | 20 | 124 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 5 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Austin Carr | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 3 | 6 | 12 | 1 |
| Cameron Meredith | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Jonathan Williams | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 26/35 | 374 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 15 | 33 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 7 | 8 | 146 | 3 |
| Julio Jones | 5 | 6 | 96 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 7 | 36 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| Logan Paulsen | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.43