Closing spread
DET -1
Total
50
Model margin
+1.8est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.022
- 45.9%Success rate41.5%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.027
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.106
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.7%
- -1.39CPOE-2.79
- 36.5%Third-down rate36.1%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 2.05Points / drive1.75
- 0.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 32/52 | 442 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 9 | 12 | 140 | 1 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 3 | 5 | 89 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 7 | 11 | 68 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 14/26 | 183 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerryon Johnson | 12 | 70 | 5.8 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 12 | 22 | 1.8 | 2 |
| Theo Riddick | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 4 | 9 | 98 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 5 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| Levine Toilolo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.77