2018 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

23·31

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -1

Total

50

Model margin

+1.8est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapLions
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.022
  • 45.9%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback+0.027
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.106
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -1.39CPOE-2.79
  • 36.5%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 2.05Points / drive1.75
  • 0.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DET
DETQ1 15:00929Punt0–6
DETQ1 10:3411Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 10:301449Missed field goal0–7
DETQ1 3:22469Touchdown0–14
GBQ1 1:0633Turnover0–14
DETQ1 0:0931Field goal0–17
GBQ2 14:48851Missed field goal0–17
DETQ2 11:19619Punt0–17
GBQ2 7:19884Missed field goal0–17
DETQ2 3:35619Punt0–17
GBQ2 1:30314Turnover0–17
DETQ2 0:53422Touchdown0–24
GBQ2 0:1500End of half0–24
GBQ3 15:001175Touchdown8–24
DETQ3 9:4022Missed field goal8–24
DETQ3 8:5910Missed field goal8–24
DETQ3 8:54626Missed field goal8–24
GBQ3 5:551155Touchdown14–24
DETQ3 1:14956Touchdown14–31
GBQ4 12:55875Touchdown20–31
DETQ4 9:0144Punt20–31
GBQ4 5:47742Missed field goal20–31
DETQ4 3:34617Punt20–31
GBQ4 1:04574Field goal23–31
DETQ4 0:0200End of half23–31

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers32/5244230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones7405.70
Jamaal Williams6335.50
Ty Montgomery4153.80
Aaron Rodgers3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams9121401
Equanimeous St. Brown35890
Jimmy Graham610760
Marquez Valdes-Scantling711681
Ty Montgomery13230
Aaron Jones23190
Jamaal Williams24190
Lance Kendricks2281

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford14/2618320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kerryon Johnson12705.80
LeGarrette Blount12221.82
Theo Riddick331.00
Matthew Stafford1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Golladay49981
Golden Tate57420
Theo Riddick23200
Kerryon Johnson22150
Marvin Jones1481
Levine Toilolo0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.77