2018 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

34·13

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 70°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

PHI -1.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapGiants
  • +0.037EPA / play+0.016
  • 46.2%Success rate39.9%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.054
  • -0.097EPA / rush-0.054
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +5.11CPOE+0.30
  • 40.4%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
  • 2.01Points / drive1.89
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NYG
NYGQ1 15:0028Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 14:15316Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 13:15660Field goal7–3
PHIQ1 10:06746Punt7–3
NYGQ1 6:5637Punt7–3
PHIQ1 4:49644Touchdown14–3
NYGQ1 1:2830Punt14–3
PHIQ1 0:1536Punt14–3
NYGQ2 13:30627Punt14–3
PHIQ2 9:4739Punt14–3
NYGQ2 8:14865Field goal14–6
PHIQ2 5:44475Touchdown21–6
NYGQ2 4:223-6Punt21–6
PHIQ2 3:02620Field goal24–6
NYGQ2 1:29441Missed field goal24–6
PHIQ2 0:23311Missed field goal24–6
NYGQ2 0:02120End of half24–6
PHIQ3 15:001275Touchdown31–6
NYGQ3 8:42575Touchdown31–13
PHIQ3 6:101249Field goal34–13
NYGQ4 14:5266Punt34–13
PHIQ4 12:1734Punt34–13
NYGQ4 10:081458Turnover on downs34–13
PHIQ4 5:19924Punt34–13
NYGQ4 1:39440End of half34–13

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz26/3627830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wendell Smallwood18512.80
Corey Clement11433.91
Carson Wentz2147.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nelson Agholor35910
Alshon Jeffery812742
Zach Ertz79431
Jordan Matthews23260
Corey Clement33260
DeAndre Carter11110
Dallas Goedert1170
Wendell Smallwood1200

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning24/4328101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley1313010.01
Wayne Gallman4174.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Saquon Barkley912990
Cody Latimer34520
Odell Beckham Jr.610440
Sterling Shepard37370
Wayne Gallman25250
Scott Simonson13240
Jawill Davis0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.50