Closing spread
PHI -1.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play+0.016
- 46.2%Success rate39.9%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.054
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.5%
- +5.11CPOE+0.30
- 40.4%Third-down rate36.5%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 2.01Points / drive1.89
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 26/36 | 278 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wendell Smallwood | 18 | 51 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 5 | 91 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 8 | 12 | 74 | 2 |
| Zach Ertz | 7 | 9 | 43 | 1 |
| Jordan Matthews | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 24/43 | 281 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 13 | 130 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Wayne Gallman | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 9 | 12 | 99 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 6 | 10 | 44 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Scott Simonson | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Jawill Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.50