2018 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

29·34

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

57.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.045EPA / play+0.083
  • 44.9%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.165EPA / dropback+0.200
  • -0.229EPA / rush-0.160
  • 9.1%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +3.11CPOE+4.21
  • 46.7%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 64.3%Red-zone TD rate72.2%
  • 1.93Points / drive2.34
  • 3.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. ATL are 21-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–ATL
TBQ1 15:00875Touchdown6–0
ATLQ1 11:36680Touchdown6–7
TBQ1 8:22630Punt6–7
ATLQ1 4:421581Touchdown6–14
TBQ2 12:1933Punt6–14
ATLQ2 10:43758Touchdown6–21
TBQ2 7:30733Turnover6–21
ATLQ2 4:5739Punt6–21
TBQ2 3:21747Touchdown13–21
ATLQ2 0:26348Field goal13–24
TBQ2 0:0100End of half13–24
ATLQ3 15:004-10Punt13–24
TBQ3 13:05458Turnover13–24
ATLQ3 10:37718Punt13–24
TBQ3 6:47643Field goal16–24
ATLQ3 2:39522Punt16–24
TBQ3 0:19785Touchdown22–24
ATLQ4 11:341075Touchdown22–31
TBQ4 6:281070Touchdown29–31
ATLQ4 3:47736Field goal29–34
TBQ4 1:10666End of half29–34

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston30/4139542

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber13826.30
Jameis Winston5295.80
DeSean Jackson177.00
Ronald Jones133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Humphries34820
DeSean Jackson49770
O.J. Howard44621
Mike Evans45580
Chris Godwin Jr.69561
Peyton Barber44241
Ronald Jones33160
Cameron Brate11151
Antony Auclair1150

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan31/4135530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman10353.50
Ito Smith11222.01
Matt Ryan11313.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones10141440
Austin Hooper910711
Calvin Ridley33470
Mohamed Sanu22461
Justin Hardy37330
Russell Gage1190
Tevin Coleman1261
Ito Smith22-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

47.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+3.00