2018 · Week 6 · Division
Final
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · open · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
57.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play+0.083
- 44.9%Success rate46.6%
- +0.165EPA / dropback+0.200
- -0.229EPA / rush-0.160
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.6%
- +3.11CPOE+4.21
- 46.7%Third-down rate45.1%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate72.2%
- 1.93Points / drive2.34
- 3.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 30/41 | 395 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 13 | 82 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Humphries | 3 | 4 | 82 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 4 | 4 | 62 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 6 | 9 | 56 | 1 |
| Peyton Barber | 4 | 4 | 24 | 1 |
| Ronald Jones | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| Antony Auclair | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 31/41 | 355 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 11 | 22 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 10 | 14 | 144 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 9 | 10 | 71 | 1 |
| Calvin Ridley | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 2 | 46 | 1 |
| Justin Hardy | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Ito Smith | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.82
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.00