2018 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

20·7

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

JAX -4

Total

43

Model margin

-1.1est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJaguars
  • +0.032EPA / play-0.130
  • 44.3%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback-0.101
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.184
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +4.58CPOE-4.63
  • 36.4%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 54.1%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.26
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–JAX
JAXQ1 15:0039Turnover0–0
HOUQ1 13:37610Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 10:22638Punt3–0
HOUQ1 7:25961Field goal6–0
JAXQ1 2:3933Punt6–0
HOUQ1 1:06634Punt6–0
JAXQ2 13:11424Punt6–0
HOUQ2 10:261060Touchdown13–0
JAXQ2 5:311140Punt13–0
HOUQ2 1:11312End of half13–0
HOUQ3 15:00624Punt13–0
JAXQ3 12:5037Turnover13–0
HOUQ3 11:27212Touchdown20–0
JAXQ3 10:5068Punt20–0
HOUQ3 7:5530Punt20–0
JAXQ3 6:551047Touchdown20–7
HOUQ3 2:18627Punt20–7
JAXQ4 14:063-2Punt20–7
HOUQ4 12:3334Punt20–7
JAXQ4 11:191264Turnover20–7
HOUQ4 5:30830Punt20–7
JAXQ4 2:15721Turnover on downs20–7
HOUQ4 1:0500End of half20–7

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson12/2413910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller221004.51
Alfred Blue8283.50
Deshaun Watson7131.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Will Fuller68680
DeAndre Hopkins38501
Tyler Ervin11190
Keke Coutee1330
Lamar Miller13-10

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cody Kessler21/3015611
Blake Bortles6/126100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Blake Bortles6305.00
T.J. Yeldon12282.30
Cody Kessler284.00
Jamaal Charles122.00
Dave Williams122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donte Moncrief710760
T.J. Yeldon57401
DJ Chark47310
Keelan Cole27210
David Grinnage22170
Dede Westbrook44170
Rashad Greene1180
Jamaal Charles1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +42.8%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.1%

Expected total

41.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.85
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.11