Closing spread
JAX -4
Total
43
Model margin
-1.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.032EPA / play-0.130
- 44.3%Success rate40.4%
- +0.144EPA / dropback-0.101
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.184
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.4%
- +4.58CPOE-4.63
- 36.4%Third-down rate40.5%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
- 1.91Points / drive1.26
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. JAX are 20-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 12/24 | 139 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 22 | 100 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fuller | 6 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 8 | 50 | 1 |
| Tyler Ervin | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Keke Coutee | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Kessler | 21/30 | 156 | 1 | 1 |
| Blake Bortles | 6/12 | 61 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 12 | 28 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Cody Kessler | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dave Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte Moncrief | 7 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 5 | 7 | 40 | 1 |
| DJ Chark | 4 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| David Grinnage | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Rashad Greene | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.1%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.85
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.11