2018 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Matt Barkley

41·10

Jets

New York

QB Josh McCown

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 46°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NYJ -6.5

Total

38

Model margin

-8.1est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapJets
  • -0.140EPA / play-0.130
  • 37.8%Success rate37.1%
  • -0.137EPA / dropback-0.087
  • -0.143EPA / rush-0.196
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -7.12CPOE-5.42
  • 32.3%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 50.4%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
  • 1.26Points / drive1.47
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NYJ
BUFQ1 15:00275Touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 14:1134Punt7–0
BUFQ1 12:4346Punt7–0
NYJQ1 11:313-2Punt7–0
BUFQ1 9:291472Touchdown14–0
NYJQ1 2:123-1Punt14–0
BUFQ1 1:17542Field goal17–0
NYJQ2 13:5238Punt17–0
BUFQ2 12:52964Touchdown24–0
NYJQ2 7:58833Turnover24–0
BUFQ2 3:55754Touchdown31–0
NYJQ2 0:42526Field goal31–3
NYJQ3 15:00611Punt31–3
BUFQ3 12:53421Punt31–3
NYJQ3 10:10773Touchdown31–10
BUFQ3 6:321275Touchdown38–10
NYJQ3 0:3331Punt38–10
BUFQ4 14:4731Punt38–10
NYJQ4 12:40839Turnover38–10
BUFQ4 10:1531Punt38–10
NYJQ4 8:4332Punt38–10
BUFQ4 8:05835Field goal41–10
NYJQ4 2:4445Turnover on downs41–10
BUFQ4 1:5017End of half41–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Barkley15/2523220
Logan Thomas1/11500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy261134.32
Marcus Murphy14694.90
Isaiah McKenzie33210.70
Matt Barkley3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Foster341050
Zay Jones811931
Andre Holmes11220
Isaiah McKenzie11140
LeSean McCoy1150
Logan Thomas1110
Terrelle Pryor0300
Kelvin Benjamin0300

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown17/3413502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Elijah McGuire6305.00
Trenton Cannon4307.50
Isaiah Crowell7192.71
Josh McCown144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Herndon34340
Elijah McGuire36270
Isaiah Crowell22180
Quincy Enunwa48180
Jermaine Kearse25160
Charone Peake11110
Jordan Leggett1160
Trenton Cannon1450
Rishard Matthews0100
Eric Tomlinson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.55.0%3.2%7.1%5.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.84%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

28.3%

Expected total

40.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.81
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-8.14