Closing spread
NYJ -6.5
Total
38
Model margin
-8.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.140EPA / play-0.130
- 37.8%Success rate37.1%
- -0.137EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.196
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.2%
- -7.12CPOE-5.42
- 32.3%Third-down rate32.2%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
- 1.26Points / drive1.47
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Barkley | 15/25 | 232 | 2 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1/1 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 26 | 113 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Marcus Murphy | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 |
| Matt Barkley | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Foster | 3 | 4 | 105 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 8 | 11 | 93 | 1 |
| Andre Holmes | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 17/34 | 135 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah McGuire | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Josh McCown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Herndon | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 4 | 8 | 18 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Charone Peake | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jordan Leggett | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
28.3%
Expected total
40.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.06
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-5.81
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-8.14