Closing spread
PHI -7.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play+0.037
- 43.9%Success rate46.2%
- +0.051EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.097
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.9%
- +1.03CPOE+5.11
- 41.3%Third-down rate40.4%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 1.93Points / drive2.01
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 26/36 | 270 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 19 | 151 | 7.9 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Rod Smith | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 6 | 10 | 75 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 6 | 7 | 36 | 1 |
| Michael Gallup | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 32/44 | 360 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Adams | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 14 | 16 | 145 | 2 |
| Nelson Agholor | 5 | 7 | 83 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 4 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.07
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin+2.45