2018 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

27·20

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -7.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapEagles
  • +0.009EPA / play+0.037
  • 43.9%Success rate46.2%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.060EPA / rush-0.097
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +1.03CPOE+5.11
  • 41.3%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 1.93Points / drive2.01
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PHI
PHIQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
DALQ1 12:4231Punt0–0
PHIQ1 10:5810Turnover0–0
DALQ1 10:45831Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 6:59520Punt3–0
DALQ1 4:14942Punt3–0
PHIQ2 14:48751Turnover on downs3–0
DALQ2 11:501469Field goal6–0
PHIQ2 3:41735Field goal6–3
DALQ2 1:33875Touchdown13–3
PHIQ2 0:19218End of half13–3
DALQ3 15:003-4Punt13–3
PHIQ3 12:57747Field goal13–6
DALQ3 9:36552Missed field goal13–6
PHIQ3 7:391068Touchdown13–13
DALQ3 2:08975Touchdown20–13
PHIQ4 11:42774Touchdown20–20
DALQ4 7:27875Touchdown27–20
PHIQ4 3:19741Turnover on downs27–20
DALQ4 1:093-6Punt27–20
PHIQ4 0:40559End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott26/3627010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott191517.91
Dak Prescott691.51
Rod Smith284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper610750
Allen Hurns22400
Cole Beasley45370
Ezekiel Elliott67361
Michael Gallup23340
Dalton Schultz22210
Rod Smith11140
Geoff Swaim33130

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz32/4436021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Adams7476.70
Corey Clement5132.60
Carson Wentz273.50
Wendell Smallwood242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz14161452
Nelson Agholor57830
Alshon Jeffery48480
Jordan Matthews33400
Wendell Smallwood33300
Golden Tate24190
Corey Clement12-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.07
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.64
  • Expected margin+2.45