Closing spread
CHI -7.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.022EPA / play+0.039
- 41.5%Success rate46.3%
- +0.027EPA / dropback+0.147
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.119
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- -2.79CPOE+2.41
- 36.1%Third-down rate41.4%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
- 1.75Points / drive1.96
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/42 | 274 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerryon Johnson | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Zach Zenner | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 6 | 13 | 78 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 6 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 6 | 6 | 38 | 1 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Michael Roberts | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 23/30 | 355 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Tarik Cohen | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Taquan Mizzell | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 6 | 8 | 133 | 2 |
| Anthony Miller | 5 | 6 | 122 | 1 |
| Trey Burton | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 6 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Ben Braunecker | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.35
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.09