Closing spread
IND -3
Total
48
Model margin
+4.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play+0.059
- 40.4%Success rate48.0%
- -0.101EPA / dropback+0.141
- -0.184EPA / rush-0.097
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- -4.63CPOE+0.63
- 40.5%Third-down rate50.5%
- 46.2%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.26Points / drive2.25
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 26/38 | 320 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 24 | 53 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Dede Westbrook | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte Moncrief | 3 | 4 | 98 | 1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 5 | 5 | 56 | 1 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 5 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 5 | 10 | 30 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Rashad Greene | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 21/29 | 285 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 53 | 53.0 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Andrew Luck | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 3 | 3 | 69 | 2 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.80
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.54