2018 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

26·29

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

48

Model margin

+4.5est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapColts
  • -0.130EPA / play+0.059
  • 40.4%Success rate48.0%
  • -0.101EPA / dropback+0.141
  • -0.184EPA / rush-0.097
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -4.63CPOE+0.63
  • 40.5%Third-down rate50.5%
  • 46.2%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 1.26Points / drive2.25
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–22 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND
2022 · W2IND @ JAX0–24JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–IND
INDQ1 15:00775Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 11:2655Punt0–7
INDQ1 8:27426Punt0–7
JAXQ1 5:40597Touchdown7–7
INDQ1 2:58670Touchdown7–14
JAXQ2 15:00518Punt7–14
INDQ2 12:11786Touchdown7–21
JAXQ2 9:19654Touchdown13–21
INDQ2 5:531150Touchdown13–29
JAXQ2 1:46950Field goal16–29
INDQ2 0:0500End of half16–29
JAXQ3 15:001775Touchdown23–29
INDQ3 6:25411Punt23–29
JAXQ3 4:31627Missed field goal23–29
INDQ3 0:57412Turnover23–29
JAXQ4 14:54928Punt23–29
INDQ4 11:0834Punt23–29
JAXQ4 8:18927Field goal26–29
INDQ4 4:03441Missed field goal26–29
JAXQ4 2:53534Turnover26–29
INDQ4 1:301-7End of half26–29

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles26/3832020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette24532.21
Dede Westbrook2136.50
T.J. Yeldon3124.00
Blake Bortles284.00
Carlos Hyde351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donte Moncrief34981
Leonard Fournette55561
T.J. Yeldon56510
James O'Shaughnessy56460
Dede Westbrook510300
Blake Bell23270
Rashad Greene11110
DJ Chark0200

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck21/2928531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Wilkins15353.00
Marlon Mack12292.40
Nyheim Hines331.00
Eric Ebron122.01
Andrew Luck5-2-0.40
Chester Rogers1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton37770
Eric Ebron33692
Dontrelle Inman44410
Jack Doyle33360
Mo Alie-Cox24281
Nyheim Hines34190
Marlon Mack2290
Ryan Grant1160
Chester Rogers0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.2%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.54