Closing spread
LAC -7.5
Total
47
Model margin
+3.0est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play+0.126
- 43.4%Success rate47.0%
- -0.009EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.040EPA / rush+0.001
- 9.9%Explosive rate12.5%
- -0.98CPOE+3.54
- 33.1%Third-down rate39.7%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate70.7%
- 1.60Points / drive2.31
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. LAC are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 19/32 | 205 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 11 | 79 | 7.2 | 2 |
| Royce Freeman | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Matt LaCosse | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 28/43 | 401 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 18 | 69 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 9 | 12 | 89 | 1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 6 | 6 | 87 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 5 | 7 | 80 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 3 | 56 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.05