2018 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Case Keenum

23·22

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

StubHub Center · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

LAC -7.5

Total

47

Model margin

+3.0est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChargers
  • -0.020EPA / play+0.126
  • 43.4%Success rate47.0%
  • -0.009EPA / dropback+0.211
  • -0.040EPA / rush+0.001
  • 9.9%Explosive rate12.5%
  • -0.98CPOE+3.54
  • 33.1%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate70.7%
  • 1.60Points / drive2.31
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 33–23 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. LAC are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DEN @ LAC23–17DEN
2025 · W18LAC @ DEN3–19DEN
2025 · W3DEN @ LAC20–23CHARGERS
2024 · W16DEN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2024 · W6LAC @ DEN23–16CHARGERS
2023 · W17LAC @ DEN9–16DEN
2023 · W14DEN @ LAC24–7DEN
2022 · W18LAC @ DEN28–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–LAC
DENQ1 15:0044Punt0–0
LACQ1 13:471367Field goal0–3
DENQ1 7:00524Punt0–3
LACQ1 4:43865Field goal0–6
DENQ1 0:39765Touchdown7–6
LACQ2 12:05524Turnover7–6
DENQ2 9:12515Turnover on downs7–6
LACQ2 6:53984Touchdown7–13
DENQ2 2:39723Punt7–13
LACQ2 0:56616End of half7–13
LACQ3 15:001174Touchdown7–19
DENQ3 9:5638Punt7–19
LACQ3 8:38943Turnover7–19
DENQ3 3:45318Touchdown14–19
LACQ3 2:2439Punt14–19
DENQ3 0:50758Touchdown20–19
LACQ4 12:17765Field goal20–22
DENQ4 6:47824Punt20–22
LACQ4 3:45632Punt20–22
DENQ4 1:51686Field goal23–22

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum19/3220500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay11797.22
Royce Freeman7233.31
Emmanuel Sanders166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton36780
Emmanuel Sanders46560
Phillip Lindsay45270
Jeff Heuerman45200
Matt LaCosse1290
Royce Freeman1170
Devontae Booker1140
DaeSean Hamilton1240
Tim Patrick0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers28/4340122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon18693.80
Austin Ekeler6294.80
Keenan Allen111.00
Philip Rivers1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen912891
Melvin Gordon66870
Antonio Gates57801
Mike Williams23560
Austin Ekeler22400
Virgil Green24270
Tyrell Williams26220
Travis Benjamin0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+3.05