2018 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

20·25

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CHI -2.5

Total

44

Model margin

+3.0est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBears
  • -0.075EPA / play+0.039
  • 43.2%Success rate46.3%
  • -0.011EPA / dropback+0.147
  • -0.203EPA / rush-0.119
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +2.40CPOE+2.41
  • 36.2%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 67.3%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.96
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CHI
MINQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:521164Field goal0–3
MINQ1 5:581030Turnover0–3
CHIQ1 0:53421Turnover0–3
MINQ2 14:1231Punt0–3
CHIQ2 13:131392Touchdown0–11
MINQ2 6:003-5Punt0–11
CHIQ2 4:47926Field goal0–14
MINQ2 0:50443Turnover0–14
CHIQ2 0:1000End of half0–14
CHIQ3 15:00728Punt0–14
MINQ3 11:22628Punt0–14
CHIQ3 7:31828Turnover0–14
MINQ3 3:22713Field goal3–14
CHIQ3 0:073-9Turnover3–14
MINQ4 14:19411Field goal6–14
CHIQ4 11:46731Punt6–20
MINQ4 8:3810Opp touchdown6–22
MINQ4 8:301364Touchdown14–22
CHIQ4 4:51730Field goal14–25
MINQ4 2:481175Touchdown20–25
CHIQ4 0:4800End of half20–25

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins30/4626222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook9121.30
Kirk Cousins155.00
Latavius Murray451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs13181261
Adam Thielen712660
Aldrick Robinson22241
Chad Beebe11180
Kyle Rudolph25130
Ameer Abdullah11100
Laquon Treadwell1370
Dalvin Cook33-20

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky20/3116512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard18633.50
Mitchell Trubisky10434.30
Tarik Cohen7273.90
Taylor Gabriel2178.50
Taquan Mizzell1-1-1.00
Anthony Miller1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Taylor Gabriel79520
Allen Robinson37390
Anthony Miller23251
Tarik Cohen35230
Josh Bellamy23110
Trey Burton1190
Ben Braunecker1140
Jordan Howard1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

40.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+2.96