Closing spread
CHI -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.0est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play+0.039
- 43.2%Success rate46.3%
- -0.011EPA / dropback+0.147
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.119
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- +2.40CPOE+2.41
- 36.2%Third-down rate41.4%
- 67.3%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
- 1.57Points / drive1.96
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 30/46 | 262 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 9 | 12 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 13 | 18 | 126 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 7 | 12 | 66 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Chad Beebe | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 20/31 | 165 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 18 | 63 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 10 | 43 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Taquan Mizzell | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Gabriel | 7 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 3 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 2 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Tarik Cohen | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ben Braunecker | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.78
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.96