2018 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

10·38

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -2

Total

50

Model margin

+3.1est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapColts
  • -0.029EPA / play+0.059
  • 42.6%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.023EPA / dropback+0.141
  • -0.094EPA / rush-0.097
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +1.50CPOE+0.63
  • 40.0%Third-down rate50.5%
  • 53.8%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 1.83Points / drive2.25
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–IND
TENQ1 15:001128Punt0–0
INDQ1 9:20624Punt0–0
TENQ1 6:3933Punt0–0
INDQ1 4:51731Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 1:15634Turnover0–7
INDQ2 13:53754Field goal0–10
TENQ2 10:5939Punt0–10
INDQ2 9:01487Touchdown0–17
TENQ2 7:2634Punt0–17
INDQ2 5:23650Touchdown0–24
TENQ2 2:291036Field goal3–24
INDQ3 15:00732Punt3–24
TENQ3 10:23529Turnover3–24
INDQ3 8:18321Touchdown3–31
TENQ3 7:24615Punt3–31
INDQ3 4:451491Touchdown3–38
TENQ4 12:12416Punt3–38
INDQ4 10:43510Punt3–38
TENQ4 8:001289Touchdown10–38
INDQ4 1:4900End of half10–38

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert11/1611811
Marcus Mariota10/138501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry9465.10
Dion Lewis10242.40
Marcus Mariota4174.30
Cameron Batson111.00
Corey Davis1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anthony Firkser33440
Jonnu Smith68440
Tajae Sharpe57371
Corey Davis24300
MyCole Pruitt11190
Luke Stocker23160
Dion Lewis1280
Cameron Batson1150

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck23/2929730
Eric Ebron0/1000
Jacoby Brissett1/2-200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marlon Mack16613.81
Jordan Wilkins4307.51
Nyheim Hines5142.80
Jacoby Brissett3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton991552
Jack Doyle44430
Dontrelle Inman46341
Nyheim Hines13200
Ryan Grant23150
Zach Pascal11110
Chester Rogers2290
Marlon Mack1280
Andrew Luck0100
Mo Alie-Cox0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.08