Closing spread
IND -2
Total
50
Model margin
+3.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play+0.059
- 42.6%Success rate48.0%
- +0.023EPA / dropback+0.141
- -0.094EPA / rush-0.097
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- +1.50CPOE+0.63
- 40.0%Third-down rate50.5%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.83Points / drive2.25
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 11/16 | 118 | 1 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 10/13 | 85 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Cameron Batson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Firkser | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 6 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 5 | 7 | 37 | 1 |
| Corey Davis | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Cameron Batson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 23/29 | 297 | 3 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1/2 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 16 | 61 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 9 | 9 | 155 | 2 |
| Jack Doyle | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 4 | 6 | 34 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.08