Closing spread
NO -11.5
Total
61
Model margin
+2.0est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play+0.156
- 46.6%Success rate49.9%
- +0.200EPA / dropback+0.284
- -0.160EPA / rush-0.011
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.2%
- +4.21CPOE+5.42
- 45.1%Third-down rate46.3%
- 72.2%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 2.34Points / drive2.94
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 35/47 | 377 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 8 | 6 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 11 | 14 | 147 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 8 | 13 | 93 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 4 | 74 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 5 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 4 | 17 | 1 |
| Ito Smith | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 15/22 | 171 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 14 | 89 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Arnold | 4 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Michael Thomas | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | 1 | 28 | 1 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Austin Carr | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.31
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.05