2018 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

17·31

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -11.5

Total

61

Model margin

+2.0est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSaints
  • +0.083EPA / play+0.156
  • 46.6%Success rate49.9%
  • +0.200EPA / dropback+0.284
  • -0.160EPA / rush-0.011
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +4.21CPOE+5.42
  • 45.1%Third-down rate46.3%
  • 72.2%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 2.34Points / drive2.94
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NO
NOQ1 15:00775Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 11:11966Turnover0–7
NOQ1 6:2736Turnover0–7
ATLQ1 5:38725Field goal3–7
NOQ1 2:351581Field goal3–10
ATLQ2 9:093-4Punt3–10
NOQ2 7:30842Touchdown3–17
ATLQ2 3:20958Turnover3–17
NOQ2 0:1700End of half3–17
ATLQ3 15:0048Turnover on downs3–17
NOQ3 12:4935Punt3–17
ATLQ3 11:0739Punt3–17
NOQ3 9:17670Touchdown3–24
ATLQ3 5:591379Touchdown10–24
NOQ3 0:2237Punt10–24
ATLQ4 14:03412Turnover10–24
NOQ4 12:27522Touchdown10–31
ATLQ4 9:271154Turnover10–31
NOQ4 3:5938Punt10–31
ATLQ4 3:39759Touchdown17–31
NOQ4 1:5100End of half17–31

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan35/4737721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Ryan2168.00
Tevin Coleman860.80
Mohamed Sanu133.00
Julio Jones111.00
Ito Smith400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones11141470
Calvin Ridley813931
Mohamed Sanu44740
Austin Hooper55310
Tevin Coleman34171
Ito Smith2270
Justin Hardy1260
Logan Paulsen1120
Marvin Hall0200

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees15/2217141

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara14896.40
Mark Ingram11524.70
Taysom Hill2136.50
Drew Brees4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dan Arnold46451
Michael Thomas46380
Tommylee Lewis11281
Benjamin Watson12200
Mark Ingram22140
Austin Carr11121
Alvin Kamara1190
Keith Kirkwood1351

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +11.57.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

47.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.31
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.05