Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
43
Model margin
+2.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play-0.022
- 46.3%Success rate41.5%
- +0.147EPA / dropback+0.027
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.106
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.7%
- +2.41CPOE-2.79
- 41.4%Third-down rate36.1%
- 67.8%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.96Points / drive1.75
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Daniel | 27/37 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Cohen | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Taquan Mizzell | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Gabriel | 7 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 7 | 8 | 45 | 1 |
| Anthony Miller | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 4 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Taquan Mizzell | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Chase Daniel | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 28/38 | 236 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 19 | 88 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Theo Riddick | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 5 | 8 | 90 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 7 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 6 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Michael Roberts | 3 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Andy Jones | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.35
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+3.02
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.41