2018 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Chase Daniel

23·16

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

43

Model margin

+2.4est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapLions
  • +0.039EPA / play-0.022
  • 46.3%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.147EPA / dropback+0.027
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.106
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +2.41CPOE-2.79
  • 41.4%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 67.8%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 1.96Points / drive1.75
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DET
DETQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:0936Punt0–0
DETQ1 12:10835Punt0–0
CHIQ1 7:41629Punt0–0
DETQ1 3:2139Punt0–0
CHIQ1 2:0058Turnover0–0
DETQ2 14:43950Touchdown0–7
CHIQ2 9:031053Field goal3–7
DETQ2 3:583-5Punt3–7
CHIQ2 2:10565Touchdown9–7
DETQ2 0:40513Turnover on downs9–7
CHIQ3 15:00935Punt9–7
DETQ3 9:35611Punt9–7
CHIQ3 6:3649Punt9–7
DETQ3 4:35680Touchdown9–13
CHIQ3 1:35853Touchdown16–13
DETQ4 13:401073Field goal16–16
CHIQ4 7:443-4Punt22–16
DETQ4 6:0910Opp touchdown23–16
DETQ4 6:001159Turnover23–16
CHIQ4 1:07311End of half23–16

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chase Daniel27/3723020
Anthony Miller1/1800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tarik Cohen3144.70
Jordan Howard7131.90
Taquan Mizzell177.00
Chase Daniel441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Taylor Gabriel78490
Tarik Cohen78451
Anthony Miller34410
Allen Robinson24370
Trey Burton47280
Taquan Mizzell23211
Chase Daniel1180
Josh Bellamy1170
Jordan Howard1220

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford28/3823602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount19884.62
Theo Riddick2126.00
Zach Zenner294.50
Bruce Ellington122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Golladay58900
Theo Riddick77480
Bruce Ellington67280
Michael Roberts36160
LeGarrette Blount11150
T.J. Jones11150
Luke Willson1140
Zach Zenner1140
Andy Jones1340

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.00%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.35
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.02
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.41