Closing spread
MIN -4
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.075
- 45.9%Success rate43.2%
- +0.093EPA / dropback-0.011
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.203
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- -1.39CPOE+2.40
- 36.5%Third-down rate36.2%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
- 2.05Points / drive1.57
- 0.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 17/28 | 198 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 17 | 72 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 5 | 8 | 69 | 1 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 3 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 29/38 | 342 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 8 | 9 | 125 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 8 | 11 | 77 | 1 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 7 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 3 | 47 | 1 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.10