2018 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

17·24

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -4

Total

48.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapVikings
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.075
  • 45.9%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback-0.011
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.203
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -1.39CPOE+2.40
  • 36.5%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
  • 2.05Points / drive1.57
  • 0.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–MIN
MINQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:4632Punt0–0
MINQ1 11:143-4Punt0–0
GBQ1 9:31842Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 5:54675Touchdown7–7
GBQ1 2:53775Touchdown14–7
MINQ2 14:16875Touchdown14–14
GBQ2 11:0134Punt14–14
MINQ2 8:57653Missed field goal14–14
GBQ2 4:35516Punt14–14
MINQ2 2:551072Missed field goal14–14
GBQ3 15:00728Punt14–14
MINQ3 11:3234Punt14–14
GBQ3 9:5549Turnover on downs14–14
MINQ3 7:21625Field goal14–17
GBQ3 3:273-7Punt14–17
MINQ3 1:46431Touchdown14–24
GBQ3 0:27512Punt14–24
MINQ4 12:481156Punt14–24
MINQ4 5:5148Turnover on downs14–24
GBQ4 4:51873Field goal17–24
MINQ4 2:20314End of half17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers17/2819810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones17724.21
Jamaal Williams155.00
Equanimeous St. Brown155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams58691
Equanimeous St. Brown35530
Jimmy Graham24340
Aaron Jones35210
Lance Kendricks22140
Marcedes Lewis1140
Marquez Valdes-Scantling1230

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins29/3834230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray11333.00
Dalvin Cook10292.90
Kirk Cousins6172.80
Stefon Diggs11212.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen891251
Stefon Diggs811771
Kyle Rudolph77630
Dalvin Cook33471
Aldrick Robinson12110
Laquon Treadwell1360
Ameer Abdullah0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.10