Closing spread
PHI -4.5
Total
49
Model margin
+3.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play+0.037
- 39.9%Success rate46.2%
- +0.054EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.097
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.9%
- +0.30CPOE+5.11
- 36.5%Third-down rate40.4%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 1.89Points / drive2.01
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 26/37 | 297 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 13 | 101 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Wayne Gallman | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 5 | 9 | 85 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 4 | 6 | 77 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 7 | 8 | 41 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Corey Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 20/28 | 236 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Adams | 22 | 84 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Corey Clement | 5 | 45 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 7 | 8 | 91 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Adams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.24
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.98