2018 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

22·25

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PHI -4.5

Total

49

Model margin

+3.0est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapEagles
  • +0.016EPA / play+0.037
  • 39.9%Success rate46.2%
  • +0.054EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.097
  • 9.5%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +0.30CPOE+5.11
  • 36.5%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 51.8%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 1.89Points / drive2.01
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–PHI
NYGQ1 15:00980Touchdown6–0
PHIQ1 10:38429Punt6–0
PHIQ1 9:0215Punt6–0
PHIQ1 8:2200Punt6–0
NYGQ1 8:17987Field goal9–0
PHIQ1 3:1368Punt9–0
NYGQ2 15:001277Field goal12–0
PHIQ2 9:34646Field goal12–3
NYGQ2 5:19375Touchdown19–3
PHIQ2 4:06872Touchdown19–11
NYGQ2 1:04627Turnover19–11
PHIQ2 0:0400End of half19–11
PHIQ3 15:00823Punt19–11
NYGQ3 12:213-4Punt19–11
PHIQ3 10:07737Field goal19–14
NYGQ3 6:4957Punt19–14
PHIQ3 4:27611Punt19–14
NYGQ3 0:023-10Punt19–14
PHIQ4 14:05761Touchdown19–22
NYGQ4 10:11756Field goal22–22
PHIQ4 5:49950Field goal22–25
NYGQ4 0:2237End of half22–25

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning26/3729711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley131017.81
Wayne Gallman5255.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.59850
Rhett Ellison46770
Saquon Barkley78411
Sterling Shepard46370
Russell Shepard11290
Bennie Fowler23230
Corey Coleman0100
Wayne Gallman22-20

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz20/2823610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Adams22843.81
Corey Clement5459.00
Carson Wentz2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz78911
Alshon Jeffery33390
Dallas Goedert34330
Corey Clement22310
Golden Tate48300
Nelson Agholor11120
Jordan Matthews0100
Josh Adams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.98