2018 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

17·34

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -3.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapTexans
  • -0.029EPA / play+0.032
  • 42.6%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.023EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.094EPA / rush-0.149
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +1.50CPOE+4.58
  • 40.0%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 53.8%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.91
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–HOU
TENQ1 15:00629Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 11:473-3Punt3–0
TENQ1 10:08269Touchdown10–0
HOUQ1 9:21762Touchdown10–7
TENQ1 5:21426Punt10–7
HOUQ1 1:51560Touchdown10–14
TENQ2 14:53972Turnover on downs10–20
HOUQ2 9:36197Touchdown10–21
TENQ2 9:22614Punt10–21
HOUQ2 5:161042Punt10–21
TENQ2 1:4854Punt10–21
HOUQ2 0:45337Field goal10–24
HOUQ3 15:001266Field goal10–27
TENQ3 8:53835Punt10–27
HOUQ3 3:373-1Punt10–27
TENQ3 2:00356Touchdown17–27
HOUQ3 0:1339Punt17–27
TENQ4 13:443-6Punt17–27
HOUQ4 11:39760Touchdown17–34
TENQ4 8:1532Punt17–34
HOUQ4 6:43934Punt17–34
TENQ4 1:45664Turnover17–34
HOUQ4 0:1900End of half17–34

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota22/2330320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Davis13939.00
Derrick Henry8303.80
Marcus Mariota6284.70
Dion Lewis781.10
Luke Stocker100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis44961
Jonnu Smith22631
Anthony Firkser44520
Dion Lewis77330
Derrick Henry23190
Luke Stocker11140
MyCole Pruitt11130
Cameron Batson11130

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson19/2421020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller1216213.51
Deshaun Watson9707.81
Alfred Blue13493.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins56740
Demaryius Thomas45382
Ryan Griffin34380
DeAndre Carter11140
Keke Coutee22140
Alfred Blue11130
Jordan Akins1180
Lamar Miller1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.39
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.13