Closing spread
HOU -3.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play+0.032
- 42.6%Success rate44.3%
- +0.023EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.094EPA / rush-0.149
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- +1.50CPOE+4.58
- 40.0%Third-down rate36.4%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.83Points / drive1.91
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 28-19-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 22/23 | 303 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 1 | 39 | 39.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 4 | 4 | 96 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 2 | 63 | 1 |
| Anthony Firkser | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 7 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Cameron Batson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 19/24 | 210 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 12 | 162 | 13.5 | 1 |
| Deshaun Watson | 9 | 70 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 6 | 74 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 5 | 38 | 2 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Keke Coutee | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.39
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.13