2018 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

17·21

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

MIA -3.5

Total

40

Model margin

-2.1est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.140EPA / play-0.111
  • 37.8%Success rate40.1%
  • -0.137EPA / dropback-0.100
  • -0.143EPA / rush-0.128
  • 7.7%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -7.12CPOE-0.24
  • 32.3%Third-down rate30.3%
  • 50.4%Red-zone TD rate65.0%
  • 1.26Points / drive1.45
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–MIA
MIAQ1 15:001160Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 9:42615Punt0–7
MIAQ1 6:463-17Punt0–7
BUFQ1 3:583-6Punt0–7
MIAQ1 2:4936Punt0–7
BUFQ1 1:491151Touchdown6–7
MIAQ2 11:443-5Punt6–7
BUFQ2 9:2938Punt6–7
MIAQ2 6:46630Punt6–7
MIAQ2 3:41741Touchdown6–14
BUFQ2 0:40654Turnover6–14
BUFQ3 15:00979Field goal9–14
MIAQ3 9:02615Punt9–14
BUFQ3 6:15625Punt9–14
MIAQ3 3:1732Punt9–14
BUFQ3 1:4843Turnover9–14
MIAQ3 0:3210Turnover9–14
BUFQ3 0:24778Touchdown17–14
MIAQ4 12:00739Touchdown17–21
BUFQ4 8:42943Missed field goal17–21
MIAQ4 3:3436Punt17–21
BUFQ4 2:33765Turnover on downs17–21
MIAQ4 0:5300End of half17–21

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen18/3323122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen913515.00
LeSean McCoy15523.50
Marcus Murphy177.00
Chris Ivory640.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Jones49672
Isaiah McKenzie44460
Patrick DiMarco11380
Robert Foster13270
Kelvin Benjamin24200
LeSean McCoy44120
Deonte Thompson11120
Charles Clay1290

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill16/2413731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake7314.40
Frank Gore8212.60
Brandon Bolden11010.00
Kalen Ballage430.80
Ryan Tannehill3-5-1.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker47431
Kenny Stills46371
Brice Butler44250
Kenyan Drake24131
Frank Gore11100
Nick O'Leary1190
Isaiah Ford0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.4%

Expected total

40.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.87
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.13