Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
-2.1est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.140EPA / play-0.111
- 37.8%Success rate40.1%
- -0.137EPA / dropback-0.100
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.128
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.7%
- -7.12CPOE-0.24
- 32.3%Third-down rate30.3%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate65.0%
- 1.26Points / drive1.45
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 18/33 | 231 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 9 | 135 | 15.0 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 15 | 52 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Marcus Murphy | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Jones | 4 | 9 | 67 | 2 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 38 | 0 |
| Robert Foster | 1 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 16/24 | 137 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 7 | 43 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 4 | 6 | 37 | 1 |
| Brice Butler | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 4 | 13 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.4%
Expected total
40.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.87
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.13