Closing spread
IND -4
Total
45.5
Model margin
-1.7est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play-0.130
- 48.0%Success rate40.4%
- +0.141EPA / dropback-0.101
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.184
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.4%
- +0.63CPOE-4.63
- 50.5%Third-down rate40.5%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
- 2.25Points / drive1.26
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 33/52 | 248 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Ebron | 10 | 16 | 81 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 8 | 13 | 77 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 9 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Erik Swoope | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Kessler | 18/24 | 150 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Cody Kessler | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 7 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.4%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.80
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.67
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.73