Closing spread
KC -14
Total
53.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. OAK are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 23/38 | 295 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 9 | 52 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Damien Williams | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 37 | 18.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 12 | 13 | 168 | 2 |
| Demetrius Harris | 3 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 1 | 38 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 3 | 7 | 25 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Gehrig Dieter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.76
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin-0.50
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.