Closing spread
KC -14
Total
53.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chiefs
- OutSammy WatkinsWRFoot· DNP
- QuestionableEric BerrySHeel· Limited
Raiders
- OutLeon HallCBBack· DNP
- QuestionableArden KeyDEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableDaryl WorleyCBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableMartavis BryantWRKnee· DNP
- QuestionableMaurice HurstDTAnkle· Limited
- LimitedFrostee RuckerDENeck
- LimitedRodney HudsonCAnkle
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. OAK are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 24 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 14:44 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 13:03 | 3 | 36 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:11 | 3 | 34 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 11:13 | 7 | 54 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| LV | Q1 7:42 | 6 | 7 | Punt | 10–0 |
| KC | Q1 3:50 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LV | Q1 1:28 | 9 | 32 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| KC | Q2 13:02 | 11 | 48 | Field goal | 13–0 |
| LV | Q2 7:02 | 13 | 74 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| KC | Q2 1:04 | 5 | 82 | Touchdown | 19–7 |
| LV | Q2 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 19–7 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 40 | Field goal | 19–10 |
| KC | Q3 11:06 | 11 | 75 | Touchdown | 26–10 |
| LV | Q3 5:48 | 7 | 73 | Touchdown | 26–16 |
| KC | Q3 3:28 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 26–16 |
| LV | Q3 2:24 | 1 | 17 | Turnover | 26–16 |
| KC | Q3 2:13 | 7 | 52 | Touchdown | 33–16 |
| LV | Q3 0:04 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 33–23 |
| KC | Q4 10:41 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 33–23 |
| LV | Q4 9:18 | 7 | 37 | Touchdown | 33–30 |
| KC | Q4 6:46 | 12 | 75 | Touchdown | 40–30 |
| LV | Q4 1:54 | 7 | 44 | Field goal | 40–33 |
| KC | Q4 0:30 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 40–33 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 23/38 | 295 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 9 | 52 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Damien Williams | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 37 | 18.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 12 | 13 | 168 | 2 |
| Demetrius Harris | 3 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 1 | 38 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 3 | 7 | 25 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Gehrig Dieter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.76
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin-0.50
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.