2018 · Week 13 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 15mph
Closing spread
PHI -5.5
Total
45
Model margin
+3.4est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play+0.037
- 42.3%Success rate46.2%
- -0.059EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.097
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.9%
- -3.01CPOE+5.11
- 36.2%Third-down rate40.4%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 1.44Points / drive2.01
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 13/21 | 100 | 0 | 1 |
| Colt McCoy | 4/4 | 50 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 9 | 98 | 10.9 | 1 |
| Mark Sanchez | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Doctson | 3 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Maurice Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 27/39 | 306 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Adams | 20 | 85 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 7 | 7 | 85 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 9 | 10 | 83 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 4 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.53
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.66
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.36