2018 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Colt McCoy

13·28

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

PHI -5.5

Total

45

Model margin

+3.4est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapEagles
  • -0.073EPA / play+0.037
  • 42.3%Success rate46.2%
  • -0.059EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.096EPA / rush-0.097
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -3.01CPOE+5.11
  • 36.2%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 51.6%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 1.44Points / drive2.01
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. PHI are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–PHI
PHIQ1 15:001280Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 7:31414Punt0–7
PHIQ1 5:1536Punt0–7
WASQ1 3:44942Field goal3–7
PHIQ2 13:46827Punt9–7
WASQ2 9:36190Touchdown10–7
PHIQ2 9:231080Turnover on downs10–7
WASQ2 4:0337Punt10–7
PHIQ2 2:21326Touchdown10–14
WASQ2 1:46846Field goal13–14
PHIQ2 0:1500End of half13–14
WASQ3 15:003-1Punt13–14
PHIQ3 13:20870Turnover13–14
WASQ3 8:22518Punt13–14
PHIQ3 4:511185Touchdown13–22
WASQ4 14:10312Turnover13–22
PHIQ4 12:3737Field goal13–25
WASQ4 11:4130Punt13–25
PHIQ4 10:02942Field goal13–28
WASQ4 4:4867Punt13–28
PHIQ4 3:10317End of half13–28

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez13/2110001
Colt McCoy4/45000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson99810.91
Mark Sanchez188.00
Chris Thompson331.00
Jamison Crowder1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Doctson35510
Jamison Crowder44360
Jordan Reed45210
Chris Thompson35180
Vernon Davis22150
Michael Floyd1290
Maurice Harris0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz27/3930621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Adams20854.30
Corey Clement5275.40
Darren Sproles4225.51
Carson Wentz4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate77851
Zach Ertz910830
Nelson Agholor48560
Corey Clement33470
Alshon Jeffery35310
Jordan Matthews1241
Dallas Goedert0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

3.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.66
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.36