2018 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

27·23

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 31°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

BUF -4.5

Total

37

Model margin

+5.8est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBills
  • -0.130EPA / play-0.140
  • 37.1%Success rate37.8%
  • -0.087EPA / dropback-0.137
  • -0.196EPA / rush-0.143
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -5.42CPOE-7.12
  • 32.2%Third-down rate32.3%
  • 49.6%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.26
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–BUF
BUFQ1 15:001277Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 9:12314Punt0–7
BUFQ1 6:4534Turnover0–7
NYJQ1 5:5433Field goal3–7
BUFQ1 4:34842Touchdown3–14
NYJQ1 1:07943Field goal6–14
BUFQ2 11:10758Field goal6–17
NYJQ2 7:1424Touchdown13–17
BUFQ2 6:3141Turnover13–17
NYJQ2 4:4734Punt13–17
BUFQ2 3:121148End of half13–17
NYJQ3 15:0000Field goal13–17
BUFQ3 14:5132Field goal13–20
NYJQ3 13:22932Turnover13–20
BUFQ3 8:08931Punt13–20
NYJQ3 3:081185Touchdown20–20
BUFQ4 12:06943Missed field goal20–20
NYJQ4 7:4934Punt20–20
BUFQ4 6:16862Field goal20–23
NYJQ4 2:31858Touchdown27–23
BUFQ4 1:1720Turnover27–23
NYJQ4 0:5900End of half27–23

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold16/2417011
Josh McCown0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Elijah McGuire17603.51
Sam Darnold372.30
Isaiah Crowell252.50
Trenton Cannon530.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen47761
Elijah McGuire34230
Quincy Enunwa34220
Chris Herndon12140
Jordan Leggett12130
Jermaine Kearse12100
Rishard Matthews1160
Trenton Cannon1140
Isaiah Crowell1120

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen18/3620602
Zay Jones0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen910111.21
Chris Ivory12423.50
Isaiah McKenzie4225.51
Marcus Murphy4102.50
LeSean McCoy210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Foster781040
Isaiah McKenzie47470
Zay Jones39220
Deonte Thompson12140
Marcus Murphy1180
Charles Clay1260
Logan Thomas1250
LeSean McCoy0100
Chris Ivory0100
Patrick DiMarco0100
Josh Allen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.4%

Expected total

40.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.80