Closing spread
BUF -4.5
Total
37
Model margin
+5.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play-0.140
- 37.1%Success rate37.8%
- -0.087EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.196EPA / rush-0.143
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.7%
- -5.42CPOE-7.12
- 32.2%Third-down rate32.3%
- 49.6%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
- 1.47Points / drive1.26
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 16/24 | 170 | 1 | 1 |
| Josh McCown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah McGuire | 17 | 60 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 7 | 76 | 1 |
| Elijah McGuire | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Chris Herndon | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jordan Leggett | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 18/36 | 206 | 0 | 2 |
| Zay Jones | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 9 | 101 | 11.2 | 1 |
| Chris Ivory | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Marcus Murphy | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Foster | 7 | 8 | 104 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 3 | 9 | 22 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Marcus Murphy | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
40.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.06
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.80