Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play+0.009
- 46.2%Success rate43.9%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.051
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.060
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.9%
- +5.11CPOE+1.03
- 40.4%Third-down rate41.3%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 2.01Points / drive1.93
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 22/32 | 228 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Adams | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 6 | 9 | 50 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 5 | 44 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 42/54 | 455 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 28 | 113 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 10 | 13 | 217 | 3 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 12 | 13 | 79 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 7 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 4 | 9 | 24 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Rico Gathers | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.07
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+1.99