2018 · Week 14 · Division

Final / OT

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

23·29

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

46

Model margin

+2.0est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCowboys
  • +0.037EPA / play+0.009
  • 46.2%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.051
  • -0.097EPA / rush-0.060
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +5.11CPOE+1.03
  • 40.4%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 2.01Points / drive1.93
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DAL
DALQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:27736Punt0–0
DALQ1 9:231355Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 2:253-1Punt0–3
DALQ1 0:521069Turnover0–3
PHIQ2 10:1238Punt0–3
DALQ2 7:591177Missed field goal0–3
PHIQ2 1:48427Turnover0–3
DALQ2 0:52728Field goal0–6
PHIQ3 15:0031Punt0–6
DALQ3 13:25851Field goal0–9
PHIQ3 8:59519Punt0–9
DALQ3 6:562-5Turnover6–9
PHIQ3 6:0812Touchdown6–9
DALQ3 6:04824Turnover6–9
PHIQ3 2:041048Field goal9–9
DALQ4 12:11990Touchdown9–16
PHIQ4 7:4634Punt9–16
DALQ4 6:103-4Punt9–16
PHIQ4 5:25447Touchdown16–16
DALQ4 3:12175Touchdown16–23
PHIQ4 3:01965Touchdown23–23
DALQ4 1:391027End of half23–23
DALOT1485Touchdown23–29

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz22/3222830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Adams7365.10
Wendell Smallwood133.00
Darren Sproles122.00
Carson Wentz4-3-0.80
Corey Clement1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery69501
Nelson Agholor23490
Dallas Goedert45441
Zach Ertz58380
Darren Sproles33341
Golden Tate1370
Jordan Matthews1160

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott42/5445532

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott281134.00
Rod Smith4276.80
Dak Prescott420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper10132173
Ezekiel Elliott1213790
Blake Jarwin77560
Dalton Schultz33370
Michael Gallup49240
Cole Beasley24180
Rod Smith22160
Allen Hurns1190
Rico Gathers11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.07
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+1.99