2018 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

29·28

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

KC -3.5

Total

54

Model margin

+2.1est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapChiefs
  • +0.126EPA / play+0.236
  • 47.0%Success rate50.0%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.349
  • +0.001EPA / rush+0.018
  • 12.5%Explosive rate12.1%
  • +3.54CPOE+4.64
  • 39.7%Third-down rate47.8%
  • 70.7%Red-zone TD rate75.5%
  • 2.31Points / drive3.03
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 32–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6LAC @ KC6–22KC
2025 · W15LAC @ KC16–13CHARGERS
2025 · W1KC @ LAC21–27CHARGERS
2024 · W14LAC @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W4KC @ LAC17–10KC
2023 · W18KC @ LAC13–12KC
2023 · W7LAC @ KC17–31KC
2022 · W11KC @ LAC30–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–KC
LACQ1 15:0024Turnover0–0
KCQ1 14:071049Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 9:09626Punt0–7
KCQ1 5:341070Touchdown0–14
LACQ1 0:431266Touchdown7–14
KCQ2 9:4337Punt7–14
LACQ2 8:031584Turnover7–14
KCQ2 0:47414Punt7–14
LACQ2 0:0917End of half7–14
KCQ3 15:00774Touchdown7–21
LACQ3 11:381176Touchdown14–21
KCQ3 4:57417Punt14–21
LACQ3 2:53411Punt14–21
KCQ3 1:101963Touchdown14–28
LACQ4 8:151272Touchdown21–28
KCQ4 3:4930Punt21–28
LACQ4 2:371061Touchdown29–28
KCQ4 0:0400End of half29–28

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers26/3831322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Jackson16583.61
Detrez Newsome6345.70
Mike Williams11919.01
Travis Benjamin188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams79762
Tyrell Williams612710
Travis Benjamin23570
Antonio Gates45540
Justin Jackson34270
Detrez Newsome22190
Virgil Green2390

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes24/3424320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Williams10494.92
Darrel Williams2136.50
Patrick Mahomes231.50
Tyreek Hill3-5-1.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Damien Williams66740
Travis Kelce79610
Tyreek Hill47460
Chris Conley23190
Darrel Williams22191
Kelvin Benjamin12170
Demarcus Robinson2371
Demetrius Harris0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

47.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.10