Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
54
Model margin
+2.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.126EPA / play+0.236
- 47.0%Success rate50.0%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.349
- +0.001EPA / rush+0.018
- 12.5%Explosive rate12.1%
- +3.54CPOE+4.64
- 39.7%Third-down rate47.8%
- 70.7%Red-zone TD rate75.5%
- 2.31Points / drive3.03
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 26/38 | 313 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jackson | 16 | 58 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Detrez Newsome | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 1 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 7 | 9 | 76 | 2 |
| Tyrell Williams | 6 | 12 | 71 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 2 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Detrez Newsome | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 24/34 | 243 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Williams | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Darrel Williams | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Williams | 6 | 6 | 74 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.36
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.10