2018 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

24·10

Panthers

Carolina

QB Taylor Heinicke

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-2.5est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.083EPA / play+0.067
  • 46.6%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.200EPA / dropback+0.086
  • -0.160EPA / rush+0.033
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +4.21CPOE+2.75
  • 45.1%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 72.2%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
  • 2.34Points / drive2.20
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CAR
CARQ1 15:001677Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 6:571385Touchdown7–7
CARQ1 0:3834Punt7–7
ATLQ2 14:4637Punt7–7
CARQ2 13:1513Turnover7–7
ATLQ2 13:081-6Turnover7–7
CARQ2 13:021041Field goal7–10
ATLQ2 7:40540Field goal10–10
CARQ2 5:311160Turnover10–10
ATLQ2 0:4939Punt10–10
CARQ2 0:2838End of half10–10
ATLQ3 15:00175Touchdown17–10
CARQ3 14:5143Punt17–10
ATLQ3 13:37414Punt17–10
CARQ3 12:02643Punt17–10
ATLQ3 8:42780Touchdown24–10
CARQ3 4:361173Turnover24–10
ATLQ3 0:01427Punt24–10
CARQ4 13:261166Turnover on downs24–10
ATLQ4 8:29230Turnover24–10
CARQ4 7:316-1Turnover on downs24–10
ATLQ4 6:3637Punt24–10
CARQ4 4:19959Turnover24–10
ATLQ4 1:25160End of half24–10

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan15/2623930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Hill811514.40
Tevin Coleman10515.10
Mohamed Sanu22914.50
Matt Ryan1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley35901
Mohamed Sanu58811
Austin Hooper22360
Julio Jones45281
Ricky Ortiz1140
Tevin Coleman0100
Marvin Hall0100
Brian Hill0100
Russell Gage0200

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke33/5327413
Kyle Allen4/43800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey211014.80
Taylor Heinicke33311.00
Cameron Artis-Payne177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey1213770
Jarius Wright78690
Ian Thomas45481
Curtis Samuel713410
Devin Funchess24230
Torrey Smith12190
DJ Moore27190
Cameron Artis-Payne12130
Kenjon Barner1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.2%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.33
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.88
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-2.55