Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-2.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play+0.067
- 46.6%Success rate48.0%
- +0.200EPA / dropback+0.086
- -0.160EPA / rush+0.033
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.7%
- +4.21CPOE+2.75
- 45.1%Third-down rate42.1%
- 72.2%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
- 2.34Points / drive2.20
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 15/26 | 239 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hill | 8 | 115 | 14.4 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 10 | 51 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 3 | 5 | 90 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 5 | 8 | 81 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 4 | 5 | 28 | 1 |
| Ricky Ortiz | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 33/53 | 274 | 1 | 3 |
| Kyle Allen | 4/4 | 38 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 21 | 101 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 12 | 13 | 77 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 7 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 4 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 7 | 13 | 41 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 2 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.2%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.33
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.88
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-2.55