Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Broncos
- OutBrendan LangleyCBConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableMatt LaCosseTEAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableShane RayLBIllness· DNP
Raiders
- QuestionableDaryl WorleyCBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableGareon ConleyCBConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableMaurice HurstDTAnkle· DNP
- LimitedKarl JosephSNeck
- LimitedKeith SmithRBCalf
- LimitedKyle WilberLBHamstring
- LimitedLee SmithTEBack
- LimitedRodney HudsonCAnkle
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 21 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 10:10 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 8:25 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 6:28 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 3:03 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 2:20 | 7 | 11 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q2 13:31 | 11 | 78 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| DEN | Q2 7:56 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 4:21 | 11 | 65 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| DEN | Q2 0:19 | 3 | 20 | Missed field goal | 0–17 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 0–17 |
| DEN | Q3 12:07 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–17 |
| LV | Q3 9:25 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–17 |
| DEN | Q3 8:10 | 10 | 82 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| LV | Q3 4:36 | 13 | 82 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| DEN | Q4 12:16 | 12 | 77 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| LV | Q4 7:31 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–24 |
| DEN | Q4 5:48 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 14–24 |
| LV | Q4 5:36 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 14–27 |
| DEN | Q4 4:38 | 5 | 6 | Turnover | 14–27 |
| LV | Q4 3:42 | 3 | 13 | End of half | 14–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 23/37 | 202 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 6 | 10 | 65 | 1 |
| Tim Patrick | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 6 | 9 | 40 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Brian Parker | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.46
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.12
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.