Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 23/37 | 202 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 6 | 10 | 65 | 1 |
| Tim Patrick | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 6 | 9 | 40 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Brian Parker | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.46
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.12
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.