Closing spread
LA -14.5
Total
43
Model margin
-3.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- QuestionableJustin DavisRBShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableTodd GurleyRBKnee· DNP
Cardinals
- QuestionableJ.J. NelsonWRIllness· Limited
- QuestionableMarkus GoldenDEAnkle· DNP
- QuestionablePatrick PetersonCBIllness· DNP
- QuestionableRicky Seals-JonesTEIllness· Limited
- QuestionableRodney GunterDTFoot· Limited
- QuestionableRudy FordSRibs· Full
- QuestionableWill HoldenGShoulder· Limited
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play-0.240
- 50.8%Success rate35.6%
- +0.203EPA / dropback-0.267
- +0.065EPA / rush-0.193
- 12.1%Explosive rate6.0%
- +1.24CPOE-7.13
- 45.0%Third-down rate29.0%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 2.63Points / drive0.92
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | LA–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 20 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 12:05 | 7 | 38 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 7:07 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| ARI | Q1 3:59 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q1 2:25 | 12 | 74 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| ARI | Q2 11:56 | 6 | 64 | Touchdown | 14–9 |
| LA | Q2 9:40 | 12 | 75 | Touchdown | 21–9 |
| ARI | Q2 2:10 | 7 | 24 | Missed field goal | 21–9 |
| LA | Q2 0:13 | 2 | 17 | Missed field goal | 21–9 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 21–9 |
| LA | Q3 11:52 | 10 | 87 | Field goal | 24–9 |
| ARI | Q3 5:37 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 24–9 |
| LA | Q3 4:01 | 7 | 17 | Punt | 24–9 |
| ARI | Q3 0:22 | 9 | 36 | Punt | 24–9 |
| LA | Q4 11:34 | 4 | 95 | Touchdown | 31–9 |
| ARI | Q4 9:19 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 31–9 |
| LA | Q4 8:11 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 31–9 |
| ARI | Q4 5:22 | 9 | 68 | Turnover on downs | 31–9 |
| LA | Q4 2:51 | 3 | 13 | End of half | 31–9 |
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 19/24 | 216 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 20 | 167 | 8.3 | 1 |
| John Kelly | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Sean Mannion | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 6 | 7 | 89 | 1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| John Kelly | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Rosen | 12/23 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 5/7 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1/1 | 32 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Rosen | 4 | 49 | 12.3 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Sherfield | 6 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 5 | 32 | 1 |
| Jalen Tolliver | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Chad Williams | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.23
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.49