Closing spread
LA -14.5
Total
43
Model margin
-3.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play-0.240
- 50.8%Success rate35.6%
- +0.203EPA / dropback-0.267
- +0.065EPA / rush-0.193
- 12.1%Explosive rate6.0%
- +1.24CPOE-7.13
- 45.0%Third-down rate29.0%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 2.63Points / drive0.92
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. ARI are 23-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 19/24 | 216 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 20 | 167 | 8.3 | 1 |
| John Kelly | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Sean Mannion | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 6 | 7 | 89 | 1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| John Kelly | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Rosen | 12/23 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 5/7 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1/1 | 32 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Rosen | 4 | 49 | 12.3 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Sherfield | 6 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 5 | 32 | 1 |
| Jalen Tolliver | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Chad Williams | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.23
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.49