2018 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

34·32

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

52

Model margin

-0.1est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.083EPA / play+0.045
  • 46.6%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.200EPA / dropback+0.165
  • -0.160EPA / rush-0.229
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +4.21CPOE+3.11
  • 45.1%Third-down rate46.7%
  • 72.2%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
  • 2.34Points / drive1.93
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 28-21-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–TB
TBQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:58836Punt0–0
TBQ1 10:1613103Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 3:4839Punt0–7
TBQ1 2:04625Punt0–7
ATLQ2 14:1338Punt0–7
TBQ2 12:41835Field goal0–10
ATLQ2 8:25531Punt0–10
TBQ2 5:0647Punt0–10
ATLQ2 2:55413Punt0–10
TBQ2 1:42470Touchdown0–17
ATLQ2 0:46575Touchdown7–17
TBQ2 0:20225End of half7–17
ATLQ3 15:001460Touchdown14–17
TBQ3 8:49548Field goal14–20
ATLQ3 6:39962Field goal17–20
TBQ3 1:5925Turnover17–20
ATLQ3 1:19338Touchdown24–20
TBQ3 0:4436Punt24–20
ATLQ4 14:50775Touchdown31–20
TBQ4 10:51770Touchdown31–26
ATLQ4 8:09411Turnover31–26
TBQ4 5:54234Touchdown31–32
ATLQ4 5:10974Field goal34–32

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan31/4437821
Mohamed Sanu1/1510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman8455.61
Brian Hill8303.80
Jeremy Langford9252.80
Matt Ryan471.80
Mohamed Sanu122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones9131381
Mohamed Sanu710900
Austin Hooper56670
Calvin Ridley55321
Logan Paulsen11190
Russell Gage22140
Tevin Coleman1190
Brian Hill1190
Matt Ryan1151
Justin Hardy0200
Marvin Hall0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston22/3534541

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber15664.40
Jameis Winston22311.50
Jacquizz Rodgers331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.691142
Mike Evans681062
Adam Humphries56660
Cameron Brate24390
Bobo Wilson11160
Jacquizz Rodgers1120
Peyton Barber1120
Antony Auclair0100
Justin Watson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.8%

Expected total

47.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.08