2018 · Week 17 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
52
Model margin
-0.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play+0.045
- 46.6%Success rate44.9%
- +0.200EPA / dropback+0.165
- -0.160EPA / rush-0.229
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.1%
- +4.21CPOE+3.11
- 45.1%Third-down rate46.7%
- 72.2%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 2.34Points / drive1.93
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 31/44 | 378 | 2 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1/1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Brian Hill | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 9 | 13 | 138 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 7 | 10 | 90 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 5 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 5 | 5 | 32 | 1 |
| Logan Paulsen | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Justin Hardy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 22/35 | 345 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 15 | 66 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 6 | 9 | 114 | 2 |
| Mike Evans | 6 | 8 | 106 | 2 |
| Adam Humphries | 5 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Bobo Wilson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Antony Auclair | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.82
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.08