2018 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

24·10

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -6

Total

39.5

Model margin

-0.0est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapVikings
  • +0.039EPA / play-0.075
  • 46.3%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.147EPA / dropback-0.011
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.203
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +2.41CPOE+2.40
  • 41.4%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 67.8%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
  • 1.96Points / drive1.57
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–MIN
MINQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
CHIQ1 14:24671Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 10:3831Punt7–0
CHIQ1 8:3334Punt7–0
MINQ1 6:4937Punt7–0
CHIQ1 4:56745Punt7–0
MINQ2 14:543-9Punt7–0
CHIQ2 12:561175Touchdown13–0
MINQ2 7:17725Punt13–0
CHIQ2 3:3537Punt13–0
MINQ2 1:57822Field goal13–3
CHIQ2 0:5323End of half13–3
CHIQ3 15:00940Punt13–3
MINQ3 9:261466Touchdown13–10
CHIQ3 1:511875Touchdown21–10
MINQ4 7:4647Turnover on downs21–10
CHIQ4 6:5438Field goal24–10
MINQ4 4:25512Turnover on downs24–10
CHIQ4 3:3445Turnover on downs24–10
MINQ4 2:33730Turnover on downs24–10
CHIQ4 0:1700End of half24–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky18/2616300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard211095.22
Tarik Cohen5244.81
Mitchell Trubisky3165.30
Benny Cunningham6132.20
Anthony Miller273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Taylor Gabriel44610
Trey Burton56330
Javon Wims44320
Kevin White13220
Tarik Cohen2380
Jordan Howard1250
Josh Bellamy1420

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins20/3313210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook11393.50
Latavius Murray2189.00
Kirk Cousins177.00
Adam Thielen1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs810471
Adam Thielen34380
Dalvin Cook45210
Kyle Rudolph45190
Laquon Treadwell1270
Aldrick Robinson0400
Brandon Zylstra0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.0%

Expected total

40.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.04