Closing spread
MIN -6
Total
39.5
Model margin
-0.0est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play-0.075
- 46.3%Success rate43.2%
- +0.147EPA / dropback-0.011
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.203
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- +2.41CPOE+2.40
- 41.4%Third-down rate36.2%
- 67.8%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
- 1.96Points / drive1.57
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. MIN are 23-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 18/26 | 163 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 21 | 109 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Tarik Cohen | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Gabriel | 4 | 4 | 61 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Javon Wims | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Kevin White | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 20/33 | 132 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 8 | 10 | 47 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 4 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.78
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.04