2018 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

31·0

Packers

Green Bay

QB DeShone Kizer

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 26°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

GB -7.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-2.3est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPackers
  • -0.022EPA / play+0.054
  • 41.5%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.027EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.046
  • 7.7%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -2.79CPOE-1.39
  • 36.1%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 1.75Points / drive2.05
  • 1.7%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–GB
DETQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
GBQ1 14:0134Punt0–0
DETQ1 11:59521Punt0–0
GBQ1 9:4039Punt0–0
DETQ1 8:061365Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 2:5830Punt7–0
DETQ1 1:331178Touchdown14–0
GBQ2 10:36926Punt14–0
DETQ2 6:371496Touchdown21–0
GBQ2 1:06528Punt21–0
GBQ3 15:0068Punt21–0
DETQ3 11:37513Punt21–0
GBQ3 8:2639Punt21–0
DETQ3 7:01738Field goal24–0
GBQ3 3:08948Turnover on downs24–0
DETQ4 15:0034Punt24–0
GBQ4 13:231137Turnover on downs24–0
DETQ4 9:39555Touchdown31–0
GBQ4 6:5336Turnover31–0
DETQ4 5:33633End of half31–0

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford20/3226620
Matt Prater1/1810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Zenner21934.41
Theo Riddick4246.00
LeGarrette Blount11151.40
Matthew Stafford2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Powell691030
Andy Jones612500
Levine Toilolo44431
T.J. Jones34402
Zach Zenner12300
Chris Lacy0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
DeShone Kizer16/3513201
Aaron Rodgers3/52600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeShone Kizer44010.00
Jamaal Williams840.50
Kapri Bibbs122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquez Valdes-Scantling38430
Randall Cobb15270
Jimmy Graham35210
Jake Kumerow34190
Jamaal Williams33160
Kapri Bibbs35130
Robert Tonyan1270
Allen Lazard1170
J'Mon Moore1250
Lance Kendricks0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.73%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.9%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.01
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.30