Closing spread
GB -7.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-2.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.022EPA / play+0.054
- 41.5%Success rate45.9%
- +0.027EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.046
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- -2.79CPOE-1.39
- 36.1%Third-down rate36.5%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.75Points / drive2.05
- 1.7%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 20/32 | 266 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Prater | 1/1 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Zenner | 21 | 93 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 11 | 15 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Powell | 6 | 9 | 103 | 0 |
| Andy Jones | 6 | 12 | 50 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 4 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| T.J. Jones | 3 | 4 | 40 | 2 |
| Zach Zenner | 1 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Chris Lacy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShone Kizer | 16/35 | 132 | 0 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3/5 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShone Kizer | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 8 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Jake Kumerow | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| J'Mon Moore | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.9%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.03
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-4.01
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.30