Closing spread
IND -5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play-0.029
- 48.0%Success rate42.6%
- +0.141EPA / dropback+0.023
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.094
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.3%
- +0.63CPOE+1.50
- 50.5%Third-down rate40.0%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 2.25Points / drive1.83
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 20-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 24/35 | 285 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 25 | 119 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dontrelle Inman | 5 | 6 | 77 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 6 | 60 | 1 |
| Chester Rogers | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Marlon Mack | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 18/29 | 165 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 16 | 93 | 5.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 5 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Darius Jennings | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.81
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.33