2018 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

33·17

Titans

Tennessee

QB Blaine Gabbert

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

IND -5

Total

42.5

Model margin

-1.3est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTitans
  • +0.059EPA / play-0.029
  • 48.0%Success rate42.6%
  • +0.141EPA / dropback+0.023
  • -0.097EPA / rush-0.094
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +0.63CPOE+1.50
  • 50.5%Third-down rate40.0%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.83
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 21-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–TEN
TENQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:251297Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 6:39510Punt7–0
INDQ1 4:241795Touchdown14–0
TENQ2 9:26521Punt14–6
INDQ2 6:4710Opp touchdown14–7
INDQ2 6:3539Punt14–7
INDQ2 4:593-8Turnover14–7
TENQ2 4:38421Punt14–7
INDQ2 2:25660Field goal17–7
TENQ2 0:39640Field goal17–10
INDQ3 15:00975Touchdown24–10
TENQ3 10:46419Punt24–10
INDQ3 8:4438Punt24–10
TENQ3 6:5737Punt24–10
INDQ3 5:32733Punt24–10
TENQ3 2:23255Touchdown24–17
INDQ3 1:47526Punt24–17
TENQ4 13:27748Turnover24–17
INDQ4 9:05936Field goal27–17
TENQ4 3:55728Turnover on downs33–17
INDQ4 2:2818Touchdown33–17
TENQ4 2:2434Turnover33–17
INDQ4 1:5000End of half33–17

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck24/3528531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marlon Mack251194.81
Jordan Wilkins3186.00
Andrew Luck7172.40
Nyheim Hines144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dontrelle Inman56771
T.Y. Hilton26610
Eric Ebron46601
Chester Rogers34320
Nyheim Hines35250
Mo Alie-Cox11210
Jordan Wilkins1150
Ryan Grant1240
Ryan Hewitt1111
Marlon Mack33-10

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert18/2916512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry16935.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis57480
MyCole Pruitt22260
Dion Lewis34230
Luke Stocker12221
Darius Jennings35170
Derrick Henry11130
Anthony Firkser1180
Taywan Taylor2680
Tajae Sharpe0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.5%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.81
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-1.33