Closing spread
HOU -7
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play+0.032
- 40.4%Success rate44.3%
- -0.101EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.184EPA / rush-0.149
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- -4.63CPOE+4.58
- 40.5%Third-down rate36.4%
- 46.2%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.26Points / drive1.91
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 27-20-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 15/28 | 107 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 10 | 13 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Dave Williams | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelan Cole | 4 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 25/35 | 234 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 13 | 66 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Lamar Miller | 17 | 56 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 12 | 16 | 147 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Vyncint Smith | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
4.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.85
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.59