2018 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

3·20

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -7

Total

39.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTexans
  • -0.130EPA / play+0.032
  • 40.4%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.101EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.184EPA / rush-0.149
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -4.63CPOE+4.58
  • 40.5%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 46.2%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
  • 1.26Points / drive1.91
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:4642Field goal0–0
JAXQ1 11:3122Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 10:1100Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 10:08974Field goal3–3
JAXQ1 5:2037Punt3–3
HOUQ1 3:403-7Punt3–3
HOUQ1 1:33524Touchdown3–10
JAXQ2 14:5638Punt3–10
HOUQ2 12:3442Punt3–10
JAXQ2 11:20622Punt3–10
HOUQ2 7:28963Touchdown3–17
JAXQ2 3:013-5Punt3–17
HOUQ2 1:363-4Punt3–17
JAXQ2 0:3811End of half3–17
JAXQ3 15:0035Punt3–17
HOUQ3 13:12845Punt3–17
JAXQ3 8:43623Punt3–17
HOUQ3 5:45724Punt3–17
JAXQ3 2:04510Punt3–17
HOUQ4 14:21854Field goal3–20
JAXQ4 10:523-10Punt3–20
HOUQ4 9:1133Punt3–20
JAXQ4 8:10854Turnover3–20
HOUQ4 6:021461End of half3–20

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles15/2810701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Blake Bortles4153.80
Carlos Hyde10131.30
Dave Williams221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keelan Cole48450
James O'Shaughnessy34250
Donte Moncrief23210
Dede Westbrook37100
Carlos Hyde2360
Blake Bell1100
DJ Chark0200

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson25/3523400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deshaun Watson13665.11
Lamar Miller17563.31
Alfred Blue3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins12161470
DeAndre Carter45330
Vyncint Smith35280
Alfred Blue23120
Ryan Griffin1180
Lamar Miller2200
Jordan Akins0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

4.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

41.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.85
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.59