Closing spread
LAC -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.126EPA / play-0.020
- 47.0%Success rate43.4%
- +0.211EPA / dropback-0.009
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.040
- 12.5%Explosive rate9.9%
- +3.54CPOE-0.98
- 39.7%Third-down rate33.1%
- 70.7%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 2.31Points / drive1.60
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 14/24 | 176 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 8 | 58 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 5 | 6 | 65 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 31/48 | 292 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce Freeman | 17 | 60 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DaeSean Hamilton | 5 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| River Cracraft | 1 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 8 | 10 | 43 | 0 |
| Matt LaCosse | 5 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 5 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.87
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin-0.29