2018 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

23·9

Broncos

Denver

QB Case Keenum

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

LAC -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

-0.3est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

4.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapBroncos
  • +0.126EPA / play-0.020
  • 47.0%Success rate43.4%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback-0.009
  • +0.001EPA / rush-0.040
  • 12.5%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +3.54CPOE-0.98
  • 39.7%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 70.7%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.60
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 33–23 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DEN @ LAC23–17DEN
2025 · W18LAC @ DEN3–19DEN
2025 · W3DEN @ LAC20–23CHARGERS
2024 · W16DEN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2024 · W6LAC @ DEN23–16CHARGERS
2023 · W17LAC @ DEN9–16DEN
2023 · W14DEN @ LAC24–7DEN
2022 · W18LAC @ DEN28–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–DEN
LACQ1 15:0055Turnover0–0
DENQ1 13:20510Punt0–0
LACQ1 11:11631Punt0–0
DENQ1 8:1434Punt0–0
LACQ1 6:42533Turnover0–0
DENQ1 4:16717Punt0–0
LACQ1 2:0039Punt0–0
DENQ1 0:06734Punt0–0
LACQ2 12:05533Punt0–0
DENQ2 9:53936Opp touchdown7–0
DENQ2 5:321084Turnover7–0
DENQ2 1:12610Field goal7–3
LACQ2 0:1113End of half7–3
DENQ3 15:00644Punt7–3
LACQ3 11:24836Punt7–3
DENQ3 6:2522Turnover7–3
LACQ3 5:53416Touchdown14–3
DENQ3 3:46738Punt14–3
LACQ4 14:49422Punt14–3
DENQ4 12:20556Touchdown16–9
LACQ4 10:10896Touchdown23–9
DENQ4 5:4800Turnover23–9
LACQ4 5:402-17Turnover23–9
DENQ4 4:531135Turnover on downs23–9
LACQ4 2:08611End of half23–9

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers14/2417612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler8587.31
Melvin Gordon10424.20
Travis Benjamin11111.00
Justin Jackson6101.70
Philip Rivers100.00
Geno Smith2-2-1.00
Mike Williams1-11-11.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams56651
Keenan Allen47640
Melvin Gordon33240
Tyrell Williams23230
Antonio Gates0200
Virgil Green0100
Travis Benjamin0100
Austin Ekeler0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum31/4829211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Royce Freeman17603.50
Devontae Booker5142.80
Case Keenum382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DaeSean Hamilton58490
Tim Patrick47480
River Cracraft12440
Royce Freeman810430
Matt LaCosse58330
Courtland Sutton13250
Devontae Booker57200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%4.5%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

4.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.3%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.87
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.16
  • Expected margin-0.29