2018 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

17·42

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 33°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

BUF -5.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+5.6est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBills
  • -0.111EPA / play-0.140
  • 40.1%Success rate37.8%
  • -0.100EPA / dropback-0.137
  • -0.128EPA / rush-0.143
  • 7.7%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -0.24CPOE-7.12
  • 30.3%Third-down rate32.3%
  • 65.0%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.26
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BUF
BUFQ1 15:001066Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 10:1439Turnover0–13
BUFQ1 8:38118Touchdown0–14
MIAQ1 8:31832Turnover0–14
BUFQ1 4:211149Missed field goal0–14
MIAQ2 12:5746Punt0–14
BUFQ2 10:4135Punt0–14
MIAQ2 9:0345Punt0–14
BUFQ2 6:2439Punt0–14
MIAQ2 4:251155Touchdown7–14
BUFQ2 0:542-2Opp touchdown14–14
BUFQ2 0:3917End of half14–14
MIAQ3 15:0031Punt14–14
BUFQ3 13:461078Touchdown14–21
MIAQ3 9:092-3Turnover14–21
BUFQ3 8:45523Touchdown14–28
MIAQ3 6:571055Field goal17–28
BUFQ3 1:2839Punt17–28
MIAQ4 14:51416Punt17–28
BUFQ4 12:30355Touchdown17–35
MIAQ4 11:13736Turnover17–35
BUFQ4 8:09237Touchdown17–42
MIAQ4 7:4432Punt17–42
BUFQ4 6:05629Turnover on downs17–42
MIAQ4 1:19211End of half17–42

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill18/3114702
Kenny Stills1/1310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kalen Ballage12473.90
Kenyan Drake11433.90
Ryan Tannehill294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenyan Drake55520
Kenny Stills37270
Danny Amendola45260
Mike Gesicki12180
Durham Smythe34140
Brandon Bolden1190
Ryan Tannehill1131
Kalen Ballage1110
DeVante Parker0300
Leonte Carroo0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen17/2622431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen99510.62
Chris Ivory14453.20
LeSean McCoy10262.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Jones69932
Chris Ivory11460
Jason Croom24320
Robert Foster45211
LeSean McCoy23180
Ray-Ray McCloud1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.9%

Expected total

40.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.87
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.61