Closing spread
BUF -5.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.111EPA / play-0.140
- 40.1%Success rate37.8%
- -0.100EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.143
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.7%
- -0.24CPOE-7.12
- 30.3%Third-down rate32.3%
- 65.0%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
- 1.45Points / drive1.26
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 18/31 | 147 | 0 | 2 |
| Kenny Stills | 1/1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalen Ballage | 12 | 47 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 5 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Kalen Ballage | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonte Carroo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 17/26 | 224 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 9 | 95 | 10.6 | 2 |
| Chris Ivory | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Jones | 6 | 9 | 93 | 2 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 1 | 46 | 0 |
| Jason Croom | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Robert Foster | 4 | 5 | 21 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
40.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.87
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.61