Closing spread
KC -14.5
Total
54
Model margin
+3.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 14/24 | 281 | 2 | 1 |
| Chad Henne | 2/3 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Williams | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Darrel Williams | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 1 |
| Chad Henne | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 7 | 101 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 2 | 89 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Gehrig Dieter | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.76
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.58
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.