Closing spread
KC -14.5
Total
54
Model margin
+3.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutMontrel MeanderCBQuadricep· DNP
- QuestionableGareon ConleyCBConcussion· Full
- QuestionableMaurice HurstDTAnkle· Limited
- LimitedJared CookTERibs
- LimitedRodney HudsonCAnkle
Chiefs
- OutSammy WatkinsWRFoot· DNP
- QuestionableDarrel WilliamsRBHamstring· Full
- QuestionableEric BerrySHeel· DNP
- QuestionableKendall FullerCBThumb· Full
- QuestionableSpencer WareRBHamstring· Full
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 84 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 12:41 | 4 | 20 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 10:53 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 9:57 | 9 | 38 | Opp touchdown | 0–14 |
| LV | Q1 5:44 | 11 | 45 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| KC | Q2 14:11 | 9 | 60 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| LV | Q2 9:31 | 4 | 21 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| KC | Q2 7:19 | 4 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 0–21 |
| LV | Q2 5:43 | 12 | 66 | Field goal | 3–21 |
| KC | Q2 1:04 | 3 | 19 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| LV | Q2 0:42 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–21 |
| KC | Q2 0:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–21 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 44 | Punt | 3–21 |
| KC | Q3 10:07 | 5 | 99 | Touchdown | 3–28 |
| LV | Q3 8:33 | 7 | 11 | Punt | 3–28 |
| KC | Q3 4:01 | 10 | 92 | Touchdown | 3–35 |
| LV | Q4 13:25 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 3–35 |
| KC | Q4 10:04 | 13 | 51 | Turnover on downs | 3–35 |
| LV | Q4 1:12 | 3 | 19 | End of half | 3–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 14/24 | 281 | 2 | 1 |
| Chad Henne | 2/3 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Williams | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Darrel Williams | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 1 |
| Chad Henne | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 7 | 101 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 2 | 89 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Gehrig Dieter | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.76
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.58
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.