2018 · Week 17 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
PHI -6
Total
43
Model margin
-0.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play-0.073
- 46.2%Success rate42.3%
- +0.110EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.096
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- +5.11CPOE-3.01
- 40.4%Third-down rate36.2%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 2.01Points / drive1.44
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 28/33 | 221 | 2 | 1 |
| Nate Sudfeld | 1/1 | 22 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wendell Smallwood | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Josh Adams | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Nate Sudfeld | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 5 | 5 | 59 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 5 | 6 | 40 | 2 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Josh Adams | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 12/27 | 91 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Doctson | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 5 | 8 | 14 | 0 |
| Matt Flanagan | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Darvin Kidsy | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 8 | 7 | 0 |
| Jehu Chesson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.53
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.35
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.35