2018 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

24·0

Commanders

Washington

QB Josh Johnson

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

PHI -6

Total

43

Model margin

-0.3est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCommanders
  • +0.037EPA / play-0.073
  • 46.2%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback-0.059
  • -0.097EPA / rush-0.096
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +5.11CPOE-3.01
  • 40.4%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
  • 2.01Points / drive1.44
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–21 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI
2023 · W4WAS @ PHI31–34PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–WAS
WASQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 14:44747Turnover0–0
WASQ1 10:4847Punt0–0
PHIQ1 9:2232Punt0–0
WASQ1 7:383-4Punt0–0
PHIQ1 6:421064Field goal3–0
WASQ1 0:22521Punt3–0
PHIQ2 12:191992Touchdown10–0
WASQ2 0:3046End of half10–0
PHIQ3 15:00635Punt10–0
WASQ3 10:2437Punt10–0
PHIQ3 8:481368Touchdown17–0
WASQ3 1:25715Punt17–0
PHIQ4 14:303-2Punt17–0
WASQ4 12:526-5Turnover on downs17–0
PHIQ4 10:40546Touchdown24–0
WASQ4 7:341342Turnover on downs24–0
PHIQ4 2:47310End of half24–0

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles28/3322121
Nate Sudfeld1/12210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wendell Smallwood12534.40
Josh Adams11504.50
Darren Sproles7243.40
Nick Foles242.00
Nate Sudfeld2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery55591
Nelson Agholor56402
Golden Tate46330
Josh Adams33330
Dallas Goedert33270
Wendell Smallwood44240
Zach Ertz34150
Darren Sproles23120

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Johnson12/279101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Thompson2105.00
Samaje Perine372.30
Josh Johnson341.30
Adrian Peterson400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Doctson24330
Michael Floyd23150
Chris Thompson58140
Matt Flanagan11140
Darvin Kidsy1280
Jamison Crowder1870
Jehu Chesson1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.7%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.1%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.35
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-0.35