Closing spread
LA -10.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.149
- 44.8%Success rate50.8%
- +0.054EPA / dropback+0.203
- -0.135EPA / rush+0.065
- 11.4%Explosive rate12.1%
- -2.68CPOE+1.24
- 37.2%Third-down rate45.0%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.66Points / drive2.63
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. LA are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 23/33 | 282 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 16 | 111 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Jeff Wilson | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 9 | 14 | 149 | 1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 5 | 6 | 59 | 1 |
| Richie James | 3 | 5 | 32 | 1 |
| Trent Taylor | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 15/26 | 199 | 4 | 0 |
| Sean Mannion | 2/3 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 23 | 132 | 5.7 | 1 |
| John Kelly | 15 | 30 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Sean Mannion | 2 | -8 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 9 | 62 | 2 |
| Josh Reynolds | 4 | 7 | 55 | 2 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| John Kelly | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.3%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.24
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.98