2018 · Week 17 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Nick Mullens

32·48

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

LA -10.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+5.0est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Rams wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapRams
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.149
  • 44.8%Success rate50.8%
  • +0.054EPA / dropback+0.203
  • -0.135EPA / rush+0.065
  • 11.4%Explosive rate12.1%
  • -2.68CPOE+1.24
  • 37.2%Third-down rate45.0%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 1.66Points / drive2.63
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999

Meetings average 43.4 points. LA are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1SF @ LA27–7SF
2025 · W10LA @ SF42–26RAMS
2025 · W5SF @ LA26–23SF
2024 · W15LA @ SF12–6RAMS
2024 · W3SF @ LA24–27RAMS
2023 · W18LA @ SF21–20RAMS
2023 · W2SF @ LA30–23SF
2022 · W8SF @ LA31–14SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–LA
SFQ1 15:00424Turnover0–0
LAQ1 13:0537Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 11:5730Turnover0–7
LAQ1 11:01212Touchdown0–14
SFQ1 10:421054Turnover0–14
LAQ1 6:1832Punt0–14
SFQ1 4:40458Field goal3–14
LAQ1 2:11936Punt3–14
SFQ2 13:3936Opp touchdown3–21
SFQ2 12:3739Punt3–21
LAQ2 11:101186Touchdown3–28
SFQ2 6:001055Touchdown10–28
LAQ2 2:071165Field goal10–31
LAQ3 15:00575Touchdown10–38
SFQ3 12:19860Touchdown17–38
LAQ3 8:231060Touchdown17–45
SFQ3 2:5843Punt17–45
LAQ3 0:25619Field goal17–48
SFQ4 11:44975Touchdown24–48
LAQ4 6:54924Turnover on downs24–48
SFQ4 2:37249Touchdown32–48
LAQ4 2:201-1Punt32–48
SFQ4 0:2800End of half32–48

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Mullens23/3328233

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris161116.91
Jeff Wilson393.00
Nick Mullens1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle9141491
Kendrick Bourne56591
Richie James35321
Trent Taylor34170
Ross Dwelley1160
Alfred Morris1140

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff15/2619940
Sean Mannion2/32300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson231325.71
John Kelly15302.00
Robert Woods111.00
Jared Goff100.00
Sean Mannion2-8-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks59622
Josh Reynolds47552
Tyler Higbee11360
Robert Woods23240
C.J. Anderson33220
John Kelly12180
Johnny Mundt1150
Gerald Everett0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.56%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.3%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.98