2019 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

17·16

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 77°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

Total

41

Model margin

+0.2est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapJets
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.155
  • 41.8%Success rate37.3%
  • +0.020EPA / dropback-0.119
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.216
  • 10.1%Explosive rate6.9%
  • -2.62CPOE+0.20
  • 35.9%Third-down rate30.8%
  • 58.3%Red-zone TD rate48.5%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.20
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NYJ
BUFQ1 15:00732Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 12:0436Punt0–6
BUFQ1 10:4210Opp touchdown0–6
BUFQ1 10:34628Punt0–6
BUFQ1 7:1610Punt0–6
BUFQ1 7:12212Punt0–6
NYJQ1 6:12933Punt0–6
BUFQ1 0:4942Punt0–6
NYJQ2 14:051138Punt0–6
BUFQ2 8:511064Turnover0–6
NYJQ2 3:5136Punt0–6
BUFQ2 2:33530Turnover0–6
NYJQ2 1:00421Missed field goal0–6
BUFQ2 0:2600End of half0–6
NYJQ3 15:00715Punt0–8
BUFQ3 12:011-2Safety0–8
NYJQ3 11:521055Touchdown0–16
BUFQ3 7:01930Field goal3–16
NYJQ3 3:48619Punt3–16
BUFQ4 14:54885Touchdown10–16
NYJQ4 10:21619Punt10–16
BUFQ4 5:55885Touchdown17–16
NYJQ4 3:00910Turnover on downs17–16
BUFQ4 1:1235Punt17–16
NYJQ4 0:1221Turnover17–16

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen24/3725412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary47017.50
Josh Allen10383.81
Frank Gore11201.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Brown7101231
Cole Beasley59400
Tommy Sweeney22350
Devin Singletary56280
Zay Jones24180
Patrick DiMarco2290
Dawson Knox1210

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold28/4117510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell17603.50
Jamison Crowder144.00
Ty Montgomery242.00
Sam Darnold100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder1417990
Le'Veon Bell69321
Robbie Chosen37230
Josh Bellamy11150
Ryan Griffin34100
Quincy Enunwa13-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.5%

Expected total

41.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.56
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.18