Closing spread
NYJ -2.5
Total
41
Model margin
+0.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.155
- 41.8%Success rate37.3%
- +0.020EPA / dropback-0.119
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.216
- 10.1%Explosive rate6.9%
- -2.62CPOE+0.20
- 35.9%Third-down rate30.8%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate48.5%
- 1.56Points / drive1.20
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 24/37 | 254 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 70 | 17.5 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 11 | 20 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 7 | 10 | 123 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 5 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Tommy Sweeney | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 28/41 | 175 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 17 | 60 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 14 | 17 | 99 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 6 | 9 | 32 | 1 |
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 1 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.56
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.18