Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 21/31 | 268 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce Freeman | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 7 | 8 | 120 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 7 | 86 | 1 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 4 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.55
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.29
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.