Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Broncos
- OutAndy JanovichRBPectoral· DNP
- OutJoseph JonesLBTricep· DNP
- DoubtfulTodd DavisLBCalf· DNP
- QuestionableBryce CallahanCBFoot· Limited
- LimitedTroy FumagalliTEIllness
Raiders
- OutGabe JacksonGKnee· DNP
- QuestionableCorey LiugetDTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJ.J. NelsonWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableNicholas MorrowLBAnkle· Limited
- DNPAntonio BrownWRNot Injury Related
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 77 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 8:52 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 6:35 | 8 | 44 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 2:29 | 10 | 47 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q2 12:05 | 13 | 98 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| DEN | Q2 3:30 | 13 | 34 | Missed field goal | 0–14 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 67 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| LV | Q3 9:20 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–14 |
| DEN | Q3 7:03 | 9 | 54 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| LV | Q3 3:42 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 6–14 |
| DEN | Q3 1:18 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–14 |
| LV | Q4 14:51 | 5 | 60 | Touchdown | 6–21 |
| DEN | Q4 11:52 | 5 | 54 | Field goal | 9–21 |
| LV | Q4 8:39 | 5 | 19 | Field goal | 9–24 |
| DEN | Q4 4:38 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 16–24 |
| LV | Q4 2:15 | 4 | 25 | End of half | 16–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 21/31 | 268 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce Freeman | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 7 | 8 | 120 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 7 | 86 | 1 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 4 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.55
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.29
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.