Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
49
Model margin
-2.1est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.128EPA / play+0.085
- 44.3%Success rate46.0%
- +0.276EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.043
- 8.6%Explosive rate10.8%
- +2.98CPOE+1.74
- 47.3%Third-down rate41.9%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
- 2.47Points / drive2.24
- 0.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 14–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. PIT are 6-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 19/26 | 222 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 24 | 127 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 4 | 93 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 9 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 5 | 32 | 1 |
| Chris Hogan | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landry Jones | 29/47 | 281 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 21 | 81 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 11 | 106 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 10 | 13 | 68 | 0 |
| Cobi Hamilton | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 3 | 7 | 30 | 1 |
| Jesse James | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Xavier Grimble | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Sammie Coates | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.5%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.79
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.08