2016 · Week 7

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

27·16

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Landry Jones

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NE -7.5

Total

49

Model margin

-2.1est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.128EPA / play+0.085
  • 44.3%Success rate46.0%
  • +0.276EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.043
  • 8.6%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +2.98CPOE+1.74
  • 47.3%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
  • 2.47Points / drive2.24
  • 0.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 15–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2PIT @ NE3–20NE
2025 · W3PIT @ NE21–14PIT
2023 · W14NE @ PIT21–18NE
2022 · W2NE @ PIT17–14NE
2019 · W1PIT @ NE3–33NE
2018 · W15NE @ PIT10–17PIT
2017 · W15NE @ PIT27–24NE
2016 · playoffsPIT @ NE17–36NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–PIT
PITQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:51112Turnover0–0
PITQ1 12:42434Turnover0–0
NEQ1 10:181380Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 2:55416Punt7–0
NEQ1 0:441174Touchdown14–0
PITQ2 10:58571Touchdown14–7
NEQ2 9:0233Punt14–7
PITQ2 8:10724Missed field goal14–7
NEQ2 4:42618Punt14–7
PITQ2 1:47866Field goal14–10
NEQ2 0:0200End of half14–10
NEQ3 15:0048Punt14–10
PITQ3 13:33848Field goal14–13
NEQ3 8:44575Touchdown20–13
PITQ3 6:191152Field goal20–16
NEQ4 14:44675Touchdown27–16
PITQ4 11:4433Punt27–16
PITQ4 10:3737Missed field goal27–16
NEQ4 9:0049Punt27–16
PITQ4 6:5747Punt27–16
NEQ4 5:1939Punt27–16
PITQ4 3:021239Turnover on downs27–16
NEQ4 0:1200End of half27–16

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady19/2622220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount241275.32
Tom Brady5132.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski44931
Julian Edelman910600
James White25321
Chris Hogan22250
LeGarrette Blount1170
Martellus Bennett1250
Brandon Bolden0100
Malcolm Mitchell0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Landry Jones29/4728111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell21813.90
Antonio Brown11313.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown7111060
Le'Veon Bell1013680
Cobi Hamilton36360
Darrius Heyward-Bey37301
Jesse James22180
Xavier Grimble25140
David Johnson1150
Sammie Coates1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

4.69%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.5%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.03
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.08