2019 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Gardner Minshew

12·13

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -7.5

Total

43

Model margin

+2.2est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTexans
  • -0.053EPA / play+0.057
  • 39.3%Success rate45.6%
  • -0.010EPA / dropback+0.132
  • -0.145EPA / rush-0.071
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -3.03CPOE+1.12
  • 35.4%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 47.6%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.61Points / drive2.18
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–HOU
JAXQ1 15:0059Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:5239Punt0–0
JAXQ1 10:3035Punt0–0
HOUQ1 9:091466Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 1:54624Punt0–3
HOUQ2 13:35423Punt0–3
JAXQ2 11:3434Punt0–3
HOUQ2 9:563-8Punt0–3
JAXQ2 8:371052Field goal3–3
HOUQ2 3:171076Field goal3–6
HOUQ3 15:00530Punt3–6
JAXQ3 11:52516Punt3–6
HOUQ3 8:48515Punt3–6
JAXQ3 6:40531Punt3–6
HOUQ3 3:36930Punt3–6
JAXQ4 13:262-9Turnover3–6
HOUQ4 12:59411Touchdown3–13
JAXQ4 11:351086Field goal6–13
HOUQ4 6:01612Punt6–13
JAXQ4 3:361463Touchdown12–13
HOUQ4 0:3000End of half12–13

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew23/3321310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gardner Minshew6569.30
Leonard Fournette15473.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Conley45730
DJ Chark79551
Leonard Fournette46400
James O'Shaughnessy44280
Geoff Swaim34140
Dede Westbrook1530

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson16/2915900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde20904.50
Duke Johnson6315.20
Deshaun Watson451.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins58400
Will Fuller47400
Kenny Stills23380
Jordan Akins23250
Darren Fells1390
Keke Coutee2470
Duke Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.19