Closing spread
HOU -7.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.2est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.053EPA / play+0.057
- 39.3%Success rate45.6%
- -0.010EPA / dropback+0.132
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.7%
- -3.03CPOE+1.12
- 35.4%Third-down rate43.7%
- 47.6%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.61Points / drive2.18
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 27-20-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 23/33 | 213 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 6 | 56 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 15 | 47 | 3.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Conley | 4 | 5 | 73 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 7 | 9 | 55 | 1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 16/29 | 159 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 20 | 90 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 4 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Keke Coutee | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.53
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.19