Closing spread
KC -7
Total
53.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. OAK are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 30/44 | 443 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 11 | 23 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 9 | 8 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Darwin Thompson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demarcus Robinson | 6 | 6 | 172 | 2 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 9 | 107 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 4 | 6 | 61 | 1 |
| Sammy Watkins | 6 | 13 | 49 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 3 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
4.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.81
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.15
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.