Closing spread
KC -7
Total
53.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chiefs
- OutTyreek HillWRShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableEric FisherTGroin· Limited
Raiders
- OutGabe JacksonGKnee· DNP
- OutJ.J. NelsonWRAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableA.J. ColePright Foot
- QuestionableCorey LiugetDTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableGareon ConleyCBNeck· Limited
- DNPJohnathan AbramSShoulder
- LimitedTyrell WilliamsWRIllness
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. OAK are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 60 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 10:21 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 7:24 | 7 | 31 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| KC | Q1 4:46 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LV | Q1 2:01 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–10 |
| KC | Q1 1:05 | 4 | 57 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| LV | Q2 14:55 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 7–10 |
| KC | Q2 12:23 | 15 | 100 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| LV | Q2 5:51 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 14–10 |
| KC | Q2 3:33 | 6 | 104 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| LV | Q2 1:41 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 27–10 |
| KC | Q2 0:47 | 1 | 39 | Touchdown | 28–10 |
| LV | Q2 0:40 | 6 | 43 | End of half | 28–10 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 28–10 |
| LV | Q3 11:58 | 6 | 77 | Turnover | 28–10 |
| KC | Q3 8:31 | 7 | 16 | Punt | 28–10 |
| LV | Q3 4:52 | 6 | 26 | Turnover | 28–10 |
| KC | Q3 2:14 | 8 | 17 | Turnover | 28–10 |
| LV | Q4 14:04 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 28–10 |
| KC | Q4 12:37 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 28–10 |
| LV | Q4 11:41 | 10 | 20 | Punt | 28–10 |
| KC | Q4 6:25 | 11 | 76 | End of half | 28–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 30/44 | 443 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 11 | 23 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 9 | 8 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Darwin Thompson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demarcus Robinson | 6 | 6 | 172 | 2 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 9 | 107 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 4 | 6 | 61 | 1 |
| Sammy Watkins | 6 | 13 | 49 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 3 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
4.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.81
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.15
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.